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# Bellucci vs Atmane Prediction: Almaty Open 2026 Round of 16
- URL: https://courtshark.ai/blog/bellucci-vs-atmane-almaty-open-2026-prediction/
- Published: 2026-10-22T02:51:08.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-22T02:51:08.000Z
- Description: Bellucci breaks more often on hard courts, but their holding rates are equal. Court Shark's model narrowly favors Atmane in Almaty.
- Author: Court Shark Desk
- Tags: match-preview, Terence Atmane, Mattia Bellucci, Almaty Open 2026, Hard, ATP

In this analysis

1. [Key takeaway](#key-takeaway)
2. [A quarterfinal place against contrasting recent form](#s-a-quarterfinal-place-against-contrasting-recent-form)
3. [Equal holding rates, unequal returns](#s-equal-holding-rates-unequal-returns)
4. [Bellucci can overturn the forecast on return](#s-bellucci-can-overturn-the-forecast-on-return)
5. [The prediction](#s-the-prediction)
6. [Explore this matchup](#explore)
7. [Methodology and sources](#methodology)

Key takeaway

Bellucci's hard-court edge comes from breaking serve, not holding it. That makes him a credible threat, but Court Shark's model narrowly favors Atmane.

Terence Atmane faces Mattia Bellucci in the Almaty Open round of 16\. Bellucci's hard-court advantage is on return, not serve, and Court Shark's model still gives Atmane a 56% chance.

## A quarterfinal place against contrasting recent form

The Almaty Open round of 16 offers a quarterfinal place when [Terence Atmane](https://courtshark.ai/players/terence-atmane-209279) meets [Mattia Bellucci](https://courtshark.ai/players/mattia-bellucci-208233) on Thursday. Bellucci's stronger return record makes him a serious threat, but it does not establish an advantage across both service and return games. The distinction matters here.

Bellucci arrived with a six-match winning run, while Atmane had won his most recent match after a less consistent stretch. Their last 10 hard-court matches produced an 8-2 record for Bellucci, compared with an even split for Atmane. The immediate question is whether Bellucci can turn that stronger recent record into more pressure on Atmane's serve as they compete for a quarterfinal place. The surface figures offer a clear reason to consider that possibility, rather than a decisive answer about the winner.

### Service games held: where they stand

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Each dot is one of the ATP top 100 with enough matches in the last 52 weeks. Terence Atmane ranks ahead of 56 of 94; Mattia Bellucci is 61st of 94.

__Service games held, last 52 weeks, against the ATP top 100__
| Player                     | Service games held | Place             |
| -------------------------- | ------------------ | ----------------- |
| Terence Atmane             | 83.0%              | Ahead of 56 of 94 |
| Mattia Bellucci            | 79.9%              | 61st of 94        |
| Field median               | 81.6%              |                   |
| Field best (Jannik Sinner) | 94.5%              | 1st               |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

## Equal holding rates, unequal returns

Over the last 52 weeks on hard courts, both players held 83% of their service games, leaving no observed holding advantage for Bellucci in that window. Their holding rates were level. That changes the premise of the matchup: Bellucci's case rests on creating more breaks, rather than protecting his own serve more reliably than Atmane.

Bellucci broke in 24% of his return games, while Atmane managed 15%. That difference suggests Bellucci has been more capable of putting pressure on opponents' service games. If their service performance remains comparable, the return gap gives Bellucci the clearer route to separating them within a set.

Atmane's sample covered 32 matches and Bellucci's covered 41\. Those are sustained records rather than snapshots from this tournament, but they are not a direct test of how either player's return will fare against this particular opponent.

## Bellucci can overturn the forecast on return

The most concrete route to a Bellucci win is Atmane's weak return record carrying into this match while Bellucci continues to create breaks. Atmane cannot rely on matching Bellucci's recent returning output. If he struggles to threaten service games, even a small decline in his own holding performance could leave him with little room to recover.

Their only previous meeting went Atmane's way at the Australian Open in 2025, with a 7-6(7) 6-4 result. That supports his ability to win this pairing on hard courts, but a single meeting cannot establish a dependable matchup advantage. The opening set also provides a concrete example of a set reaching a tiebreak rather than being settled by a break.

Recovery could matter, too. Bellucci had played six matches in the preceding fortnight, while Atmane had played just one, giving Atmane a lighter recent workload without establishing that Bellucci is fatigued.

### Head-to-head by surface

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Terence Atmane and Mattia Bellucci have met once. Terence Atmane leads 1-0.

__Head-to-head record, Terence Atmane first__
| Surface      | Terence Atmane | Mattia Bellucci |
| ------------ | -------------- | --------------- |
| All surfaces | 1              | 0               |
| Hard         | 1              | 0               |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

## The prediction

Court Shark's model favors Atmane with a 56% win probability, while the market consensus gives him 47%, leaving the model and market on opposite sides. It is a narrow preference. Bellucci's return advantage is substantial enough to challenge the forecast, but the equal holding rates do not support calling him superior in both service and return games.

Court Shark's AI analyst, which reads the matchup without the market, also picks Atmane and agrees with the model. The tennis case for that choice is his comparable service protection and previous win over Bellucci, rather than stronger recent form. The model's match-length forecast has a median of 23 total games, consistent with a competitive match rather than an exact score prediction.

The middle half of forecast outcomes runs from 20 to 31 games. For Atmane, the specific task is to keep Bellucci's stronger return record from producing the first break in a set where his own return offers fewer opportunities.

### How long it could go

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

A 58% chance the match lasts 20 to 31 games; 23 is the middle of the range.

__Chance of each total number of games in the match__
| Total games | Chance |
| ----------- | ------ |
| 14          | 0.2%   |
| 15          | 0.8%   |
| 16          | 1.6%   |
| 17          | 3.8%   |
| 18          | 4.8%   |
| 19          | 7.4%   |
| 20          | 7.4%   |
| 21          | 4.8%   |
| 22          | 10.2%  |
| 23          | 9.2%   |
| 24          | 0.6%   |
| 25          | 3.5%   |
| 26          | 7.2%   |
| 27          | 1.8%   |
| 28          | 2.6%   |
| 29          | 2.8%   |
| 30          | 3.0%   |
| 31          | 4.6%   |
| 32          | 5.3%   |
| 33          | 3.4%   |
| 34          | 2.5%   |
| 35          | 4.9%   |
| 36          | 3.9%   |
| 37          | 0.3%   |
| 38          | 1.2%   |
| 39          | 2.0%   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

## Explore this matchup

Compare both players side by side: recent results, surfaces, serve and return.

### Player comparison

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Each measure on the same scale: recent wins, wins on this surface, head-to-head wins and the model's chance.

__Player comparison__
| Measure               | Terence Atmane | Mattia Bellucci |
| --------------------- | -------------- | --------------- |
| Wins, last 10 matches | 50% (5-5)      | 80% (8-2)       |
| Wins, last 10 on hard | 50% (5-5)      | 80% (8-2)       |
| Head-to-head wins     | 100% (1-0)     | 0% (0-1)        |
| Model win probability | 56%            | 44%             |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Recent form

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Each player's most recent completed matches, up to 10, oldest on the left.

__Recent results by player, oldest first__
| Player          | Date         | Result | Opponent                | Score                     | Event               |
| --------------- | ------------ | ------ | ----------------------- | ------------------------- | ------------------- |
| Terence Atmane  | Aug 13, 2026 | W      | Marton Fucsovics        | 3-1 RET                   | Cincinnati Masters  |
| Terence Atmane  | Aug 15, 2026 | W      | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 6-3 7-6(4)                | Cincinnati Masters  |
| Terence Atmane  | Aug 17, 2026 | L      | Alexander Zverev        | 6-7(4) 6-7(6)             | Cincinnati Masters  |
| Terence Atmane  | Aug 30, 2026 | L      | Jaume Munar             | 7-6(5) 6-3 1-6 6-7(4) 5-7 | US Open             |
| Terence Atmane  | Sep 24, 2026 | L      | Jaime Faria             | 6-3 6-7(9) 4-6            | Hangzhou            |
| Terence Atmane  | Sep 28, 2026 | W      | Dominik Palan           | 6-1 6-4                   | Jingshan Challenger |
| Terence Atmane  | Sep 29, 2026 | W      | Enzo Aguiard            | 6-4 6-4                   | Jingshan Challenger |
| Terence Atmane  | Sep 30, 2026 | L      | Elias Ymer              | 6-4 5-7 5-5 RET           | Jingshan Challenger |
| Terence Atmane  | Oct 5, 2026  | L      | Bernard Tomic           | 3-6 6-4 3-5 RET           | Shanghai Masters    |
| Terence Atmane  | Oct 20, 2026 | W      | Rinky Hijikata          | 7-6(5) 6-2                | ATP Almaty          |
| Mattia Bellucci | Oct 4, 2026  | L      | Lloyd Harris            | 6-1 3-6 6-7               | Jingshan Challenger |
| Mattia Bellucci | Oct 5, 2026  | W      | Elias Ymer              | 4-6 7-5 7-6(3)            | Shanghai Masters    |
| Mattia Bellucci | Oct 6, 2026  | W      | Alexandre Muller        | 6-4 6-2                   | Shanghai Masters    |
| Mattia Bellucci | Oct 7, 2026  | L      | Yi Zhou                 | 4-6 6-3 6-7(4)            | Shanghai Masters    |
| Mattia Bellucci | Oct 13, 2026 | W      | Elias Ymer              | 6-2 6-1                   | Jinan Challenger    |
| Mattia Bellucci | Oct 15, 2026 | W      | Luka Pavlovic           | 6-4 6-4                   | Jinan Challenger    |
| Mattia Bellucci | Oct 16, 2026 | W      | Alexander Shevchenko    | 6-4 6-4                   | Jinan Challenger    |
| Mattia Bellucci | Oct 17, 2026 | W      | Shintaro Mochizuki      | 6-2 7-6                   | Jinan Challenger    |
| Mattia Bellucci | Oct 18, 2026 | W      | Martin Landaluce        | 6-2 4-6 6-3               | Jinan Challenger    |
| Mattia Bellucci | Oct 21, 2026 | W      | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 7-6(5) 2-6 6-4            | ATP Almaty          |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Win rate by surface

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Share of matches won on each surface across each player's last 50 matches with full statistics.

__Win rate by surface__
| Surface | Terence Atmane | Mattia Bellucci |
| ------- | -------------- | --------------- |
| Hard    | 40% (14-21)    | 64% (18-10)     |
| Clay    | 40% (4-6)      | 54% (7-6)       |
| Grass   | 20% (1-4)      | 56% (5-4)       |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Serve and return on hard courts

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

How often each player held serve and broke serve on hard over their last 50 matches with full statistics, against the tour's all-years average on the surface.

__Hold and break rates on hard__
| Measure             | Terence Atmane | Mattia Bellucci | Tour average, all years |
| ------------------- | -------------- | --------------- | ----------------------- |
| Service games held  | 81%            | 82%             | 77%                     |
| Return games broken | 15%            | 28%             | 23%                     |
| Matches in sample   | 35             | 28              |                         |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Model and market on Terence Atmane

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Terence Atmane's chance as the market consensus priced it from the opening line, next to the Court Shark model.

__Terence Atmane's chance to win__
| Reading           | Terence Atmane | Mattia Bellucci |
| ----------------- | -------------- | --------------- |
| Opening consensus | 41%            | 59%             |
| Latest consensus  | 47%            | 53%             |
| Court Shark model | 56%            | 44%             |

Source: Court Shark model and pre-match market consensus.View data table

### Model win probability

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

The Court Shark model's chance for each player to win this match.

__Model win probability by player__
| Player          | Win probability | Recent form (last 10) |
| --------------- | --------------- | --------------------- |
| Terence Atmane  | 56%             | 5-5                   |
| Mattia Bellucci | 44%             | 8-2                   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Ways to win

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Every way the match can finish. The likeliest single result is Terence Atmane in straight sets (34%).

__Chance of each final set score__
| Result                   | Chance |
| ------------------------ | ------ |
| Terence Atmane wins 2-0  | 34%    |
| Terence Atmane wins 2-1  | 22%    |
| Mattia Bellucci wins 2-1 | 19%    |
| Mattia Bellucci wins 2-0 | 25%    |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Two years of form

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Each player's pre-match Elo rating since Oct 30, 2024\. Latest: Mattia Bellucci 1865 (Oct 7, 2026), Terence Atmane 1849 (Oct 5, 2026).

__Pre-match Elo rating over the last two years__
| Player          | Start of window     | Two-year peak       | Latest             |
| --------------- | ------------------- | ------------------- | ------------------ |
| Terence Atmane  | 1755 (Oct 30, 2024) | 1875 (Aug 17, 2026) | 1849 (Oct 5, 2026) |
| Mattia Bellucci | 1872 (Nov 13, 2024) | 1890 (Nov 16, 2024) | 1865 (Oct 7, 2026) |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

[Explore this matchup](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=208233&p2=209279)

Court Shark win probabilities are statistical estimates, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

Our forecast

Court Shark's model

Terence Atmane 56% to win

Match shape

Terence Atmane in straight sets: 34%

Deciding set: 41%

Total games: median 23, middle half 20 to 31

AI analyst

Picks Terence Atmane (agrees with the model)

Its case: Terence Atmane gets a narrow nod on Almaty’s fast indoor court at 848m: the 193cm left-hander won their only hard-court meeting 7-6(7) 6-4 and has the stronger hard-court serving baseline, winning 75.1% of first-serve points with a 10.4% ace rate versus 73.4% and 9.2%.

The risk it names: The major risk is Mattia Bellucci’s form, he has won 6 straight and is 8-2 in his latest 10 hard-court matches, but he arrives after 523 minutes and 5 matches in the past 7 days, compared with Atmane’s 95 minutes.

Estimates recorded before play, not certainties.

Keep exploring

[Open the full head-to-head](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=208233&p2=209279)[Create a free account to keep it](https://courtshark.ai/register?redirect=%2Fh2h%3Fp1%3D208233%26p2%3D209279)

Match context

Players

Terence Atmane  
vs Mattia Bellucci

Event

Almaty Open

Surface

Hard

Round

Round of 16

Date

Thursday, October 22

Article snapshot · Not live

Continue your research

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Related on Court Shark

- [How our match model works](https://courtshark.ai/blog/methodology/)
- [Our editorial standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)
- [About the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/)

## Methodology and sources

How we build model estimates and where our information comes from.

Model estimates and observed results

The win probabilities come from the Court Shark match model, trained on completed ATP and WTA matches. A probability says how often a player in this position wins, not that one result will happen. The model's number for a match is recorded before play and never changed afterwards, so it can be checked against the result.

Sources and citations

Results, scores, rankings and serve statistics come from the Court Shark match database. The market consensus is the pre-match price for each player converted to a probability. Figures in this article are a snapshot taken when it was written.

Limitations

Serve and return rates count only matches with full serve statistics, which are sparser for Challenger and lower-level events, and the tour average they are compared with covers every year on record. Head-to-head records count every meeting with a recorded winner, walkovers and retirements included. Charts and tables are a snapshot and do not update after publication.

About the desk

Who works on the Tennis Desk and how an article is put together. [Read about the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/)

Editorial standards

What we publish, what we check and how we decide what is fit to print. [Read our standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)

Corrections

Spotted an error? Write to hello@courtshark.ai and we will correct it and note the change. [Read the corrections policy](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)