> ## Content Index
> Fetch the complete content index at: https://courtshark.ai/blog/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further.

# Bouzkova vs Bejlek Prediction: Ningbo 2026 Quarterfinal
- URL: https://courtshark.ai/blog/bouzkova-vs-bejlek-ningbo-2026-prediction-2/
- Published: 2026-10-22T22:07:33.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-22T22:07:33.000Z
- Description: Bouzkova's stronger recent results separate her from Bejlek in Ningbo, but Bejlek's hard-court return record makes the matchup less straightforward.
- Author: Court Shark Desk
- Tags: match-preview, Sara Bejlek, Marie Bouzkova, Ningbo 2026, Hard, WTA, Form

In this analysis

1. [Key takeaway](#key-takeaway)
2. [Bouzkova's recent results provide the clearest edge](#s-bouzkova-s-recent-results-provide-the-clearest-edge)
3. [The rankings support Bouzkova, but return numbers do not](#s-the-rankings-support-bouzkova-but-return-numbers-do-not)
4. [A deciding set would strengthen Bejlek's case](#s-a-deciding-set-would-strengthen-bejlek-s-case)
5. [The prediction](#s-the-prediction)
6. [Explore this matchup](#explore)
7. [Methodology and sources](#methodology)

Key takeaway

Bouzkova's stronger recent results are the clearest separator. Bejlek's better hard-court return record gives her a concrete route to challenge the favorite.

Sara Bejlek faces Marie Bouzkova in the Ningbo quarterfinal, with recent form providing the clearest separation. Court Shark's model gives Bouzkova a 61% chance of reaching the semifinals.

## Bouzkova's recent results provide the clearest edge

Friday's Ningbo quarterfinal offers the winner a place in the semifinals. Recent form most clearly separates them: [Marie Bouzkova](https://courtshark.ai/players/marie-bouzkova-10213631) went 7-3 across her latest matches, while [Sara Bejlek](https://courtshark.ai/players/sara-bejlek-10239383) went 5-5\. The same contrast held on hard courts. That makes recent results a more persuasive reason to favor Bouzkova than an assumed advantage based on age or experience alone.

Both arrived at this stage on a two-match winning run, so Bejlek's immediate tournament results narrowed the distinction suggested by their broader form. Bouzkova beat Kamilla Rakhimova and Anastasia Zakharova without dropping a set, while Bejlek beat Alycia Parks and Sorana Cirstea. For Bejlek, this is a chance to extend her recovery after losing to Jasmine Paolini in Wuhan. Bouzkova, meanwhile, has followed her Wuhan loss to Maja Chwalinska with consecutive victories here.

### Ways to win

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Every way the match can finish. The likeliest single result is Marie Bouzkova in straight sets (42%).

__Chance of each final set score__
| Result                  | Chance |
| ----------------------- | ------ |
| Sara Bejlek wins 2-0    | 23%    |
| Sara Bejlek wins 2-1    | 16%    |
| Marie Bouzkova wins 2-1 | 19%    |
| Marie Bouzkova wins 2-0 | 42%    |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Recent form

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Each player's most recent completed matches, up to 10, oldest on the left.

__Recent results by player, oldest first__
| Player         | Date         | Result | Opponent            | Score          | Event          |
| -------------- | ------------ | ------ | ------------------- | -------------- | -------------- |
| Sara Bejlek    | Aug 21, 2026 | W      | Madison Keys        | 3-6 6-4 7-6(5) | Cincinnati     |
| Sara Bejlek    | Aug 22, 2026 | L      | Cori Gauff          | 4-6 1-6        | Cincinnati     |
| Sara Bejlek    | Aug 31, 2026 | L      | Cristina Bucsa      | 5-7 6-4 1-6    | US Open        |
| Sara Bejlek    | Sep 15, 2026 | W      | Alycia Parks        | 6-4 6-3        | Guadalajara    |
| Sara Bejlek    | Sep 17, 2026 | L      | Cristina Bucsa      | 0-6 4-6        | Guadalajara    |
| Sara Bejlek    | Oct 2, 2026  | W      | Maddison Inglis     | 6-3 7-5        | Beijing        |
| Sara Bejlek    | Oct 4, 2026  | L      | Naomi Osaka         | 6-7(4) 4-6     | Beijing        |
| Sara Bejlek    | Oct 12, 2026 | L      | Jasmine Paolini     | 3-6 4-6        | Wuhan          |
| Sara Bejlek    | Oct 20, 2026 | W      | Alycia Parks        | 4-6 6-3 6-3    | WTA Ningbo     |
| Sara Bejlek    | Oct 21, 2026 | W      | Sorana Cirstea      | 7-6(3) 6-4     | WTA Ningbo     |
| Marie Bouzkova | Aug 31, 2026 | W      | Elsa Jacquemot      | 6-2 6-2        | US Open        |
| Marie Bouzkova | Sep 3, 2026  | W      | Harriet Dart        | 6-2 6-2        | US Open        |
| Marie Bouzkova | Sep 5, 2026  | L      | Iga Swiatek         | 6-7(3) 6-7(3)  | US Open        |
| Marie Bouzkova | Sep 25, 2026 | W      | Sonay Kartal        | 7-6(2) 4-6 6-4 | BJK Cup Finals |
| Marie Bouzkova | Oct 3, 2026  | W      | Kimberly Birrell    | 6-4 6-4        | Beijing        |
| Marie Bouzkova | Oct 5, 2026  | L      | Qinwen Zheng        | 6-7(3) 6-4 5-7 | Beijing        |
| Marie Bouzkova | Oct 12, 2026 | W      | Clara Tauson        | 6-1 2-0 RET    | Wuhan          |
| Marie Bouzkova | Oct 14, 2026 | L      | Maja Chwalinska     | 6-1 1-6 1-6    | Wuhan          |
| Marie Bouzkova | Oct 19, 2026 | W      | Kamilla Rakhimova   | 6-4 6-4        | WTA Ningbo     |
| Marie Bouzkova | Oct 21, 2026 | W      | Anastasia Zakharova | 7-5 6-2        | WTA Ningbo     |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

## The rankings support Bouzkova, but return numbers do not

The rankings placed Bouzkova at No. 26, ahead of Bejlek at No. 32\. That supports the direction of the recent results, although the ranking difference alone does not suggest a large separation between these quarterfinalists. The surface evidence is less tidy. Bejlek's hard-court return record supplies a concrete reason to resist treating Bouzkova as an overwhelming favorite.

Over the last year on hard courts, Bejlek broke serve in 42% of return games, compared with Bouzkova's 36%. Their service hold rates were close, with Bejlek also narrowly ahead. My reading is that Bejlek has a credible route through return pressure, even though Bouzkova has converted more of her recent matches into wins. Those surface records do not establish how either serve handles the other's return. They complicate the form argument rather than erase it.

## A deciding set would strengthen Bejlek's case

Bejlek's career deciding-set record offers another specific route to an upset: she won 21 of 31 such matches. A close match suits her case. If her return results translate into enough breaks to extend the contest, Bouzkova's recent form becomes a less comfortable basis for the forecast. That is a conditional argument, not evidence that Bejlek will force a final set.

In career deciding sets, Bouzkova won 52 of 103 matches, a less favorable record in that situation. The players had never met, so there was no direct history to establish whether Bejlek's left-handed game would cause particular problems for Bouzkova. Nor does the schedule point clearly toward fatigue: both last played the previous day and were listed as fresh. The concrete threat to the favorite is Bejlek's return game producing a prolonged match, rather than a known physical disadvantage for Bouzkova.

## The prediction

Court Shark's model favors Bouzkova with a 61% win probability, while the market consensus has her at 60%. The market price was unchanged from its opening reading, leaving the current estimates closely aligned without establishing why they reached similar conclusions. The preference is clear, not overwhelming.

Court Shark's AI analyst, which reads the matchup without the market, also picks Bouzkova and agrees with the model's direction. Her stronger recent results provide the clearest supporting reason; Bejlek's return record is the strongest counterargument. The model's median match length is 20 games, which points toward a relatively compact contest rather than making an exact total a prediction.

The model's likeliest single outcome is Bouzkova winning in straight sets, and the forecast's middle range runs from 17 to 27 games. Bejlek's ability to turn return pressure into a deciding set is the specific result that would most challenge that projected shape.

### How long it could go

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

A 60% chance the match lasts 17 to 27 games; 20 is the middle of the range.

__Chance of each total number of games in the match__
| Total games | Chance |
| ----------- | ------ |
| 12          | 0.3%   |
| 13          | 1.4%   |
| 14          | 3.1%   |
| 15          | 5.5%   |
| 16          | 7.8%   |
| 17          | 8.9%   |
| 18          | 8.6%   |
| 19          | 7.9%   |
| 20          | 6.7%   |
| 21          | 5.0%   |
| 22          | 5.7%   |
| 23          | 3.6%   |
| 24          | 2.2%   |
| 25          | 3.7%   |
| 26          | 3.8%   |
| 27          | 3.7%   |
| 28          | 3.9%   |
| 29          | 3.9%   |
| 30          | 3.6%   |
| 31          | 3.2%   |
| 32          | 2.6%   |
| 33          | 1.7%   |
| 34          | 1.2%   |
| 35          | 1.1%   |
| 36          | 0.4%   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

## Explore this matchup

Compare both players side by side: recent results, surfaces, serve and return.

### Player comparison

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Each measure on the same scale: recent wins, wins on this surface, head-to-head wins and the model's chance.

__Player comparison__
| Measure               | Sara Bejlek | Marie Bouzkova |
| --------------------- | ----------- | -------------- |
| Wins, last 10 matches | 50% (5-5)   | 70% (7-3)      |
| Wins, last 10 on hard | 50% (5-5)   | 70% (7-3)      |
| Model win probability | 39%         | 61%            |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Win rate by surface

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Share of matches won on each surface across each player's last 50 matches with full statistics.

__Win rate by surface__
| Surface | Sara Bejlek         | Marie Bouzkova |
| ------- | ------------------- | -------------- |
| Hard    | 67% (22-11)         | 48% (14-15)    |
| Clay    | 62% (8-5)           | 70% (7-3)      |
| Grass   | Too few matches (4) | 82% (9-2)      |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Serve and return on hard courts

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

How often each player held serve and broke serve on hard over their last 50 matches with full statistics, against the tour's all-years average on the surface.

__Hold and break rates on hard__
| Measure             | Sara Bejlek | Marie Bouzkova | Tour average, all years |
| ------------------- | ----------- | -------------- | ----------------------- |
| Service games held  | 67%         | 65%            | 63%                     |
| Return games broken | 42%         | 36%            | 37%                     |
| Matches in sample   | 33          | 29             |                         |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Model and market on Sara Bejlek

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Sara Bejlek's chance as the market consensus priced it from the opening line, next to the Court Shark model.

__Sara Bejlek's chance to win__
| Reading           | Sara Bejlek | Marie Bouzkova |
| ----------------- | ----------- | -------------- |
| Opening consensus | 40%         | 60%            |
| Latest consensus  | 40%         | 60%            |
| Court Shark model | 39%         | 61%            |

Source: Court Shark model and pre-match market consensus.View data table

### Model win probability

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

The Court Shark model's chance for each player to win this match.

__Model win probability by player__
| Player         | Win probability | Recent form (last 10) |
| -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- |
| Sara Bejlek    | 39%             | 5-5                   |
| Marie Bouzkova | 61%             | 7-3                   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Service games held: where they stand

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Each dot is one of the WTA top 100 with enough matches in the last 52 weeks. Sara Bejlek is 58th of 64; Marie Bouzkova is 33rd of 64.

__Service games held, last 52 weeks, against the WTA top 100__
| Player                      | Service games held | Place      |
| --------------------------- | ------------------ | ---------- |
| Sara Bejlek                 | 63.4%              | 58th of 64 |
| Marie Bouzkova              | 69.5%              | 33rd of 64 |
| Field median                | 69.5%              |            |
| Field best (Elena Rybakina) | 83.0%              | 1st        |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Two years of form

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Each player's pre-match Elo rating since Dec 28, 2024\. Latest: Marie Bouzkova 1828 (Oct 19, 2026), Sara Bejlek 1767 (Oct 20, 2026).

__Pre-match Elo rating over the last two years__
| Player         | Start of window     | Two-year peak       | Latest              |
| -------------- | ------------------- | ------------------- | ------------------- |
| Sara Bejlek    | 1545 (Dec 28, 2024) | 1805 (Aug 22, 2026) | 1767 (Oct 20, 2026) |
| Marie Bouzkova | 1773 (Dec 31, 2024) | 1848 (Oct 5, 2026)  | 1828 (Oct 19, 2026) |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

[Explore this matchup](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=10213631&p2=10239383)

Court Shark win probabilities are statistical estimates, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

Our forecast

Court Shark's model

Marie Bouzkova 61% to win

Match shape

Marie Bouzkova in straight sets: 42%

Deciding set: 35%

Total games: median 20, middle half 17 to 27

AI analyst

Picks Marie Bouzkova (agrees with the model)

Its case: Bouzkova has won 7 of her last 10 hard-court matches versus Bejlek’s 5 of 10, and her recent overall 7-3 run has come against a stronger recent slate; she also holds more often on hard courts (68.1% to 63.0%) and wins more first-serve points (64.2% to 60.1%).

The risk it names: Bejlek’s left-handed returning is the biggest danger, especially if this becomes a decider: she has won 66.7% of deciding sets compared with Bouzkova’s 51.6%.

Estimates recorded before play, not certainties.

Keep exploring

[Open the full head-to-head](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=10213631&p2=10239383)[Create a free account to keep it](https://courtshark.ai/register?redirect=%2Fh2h%3Fp1%3D10213631%26p2%3D10239383)

Match context

Players

Sara Bejlek  
vs Marie Bouzkova

Event

Ningbo

Surface

Hard

Round

Quarterfinal

Date

Friday, October 23

Article snapshot · Not live

Continue your research

Compare form, explore surfaces and follow live match context.

[Explore Premium](https://courtshark.ai/register?redirect=/start-premium)[See what's included](https://courtshark.ai/premium)
- Advanced filters and splits
- Save your research
- Live context and updates

Related on Court Shark

- [How our match model works](https://courtshark.ai/blog/methodology/)
- [Our editorial standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)
- [About the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/)

## Methodology and sources

How we build model estimates and where our information comes from.

Model estimates and observed results

The win probabilities come from the Court Shark match model, trained on completed ATP and WTA matches. A probability says how often a player in this position wins, not that one result will happen. The model's number for a match is recorded before play and never changed afterwards, so it can be checked against the result.

Sources and citations

Results, scores, rankings and serve statistics come from the Court Shark match database. The market consensus is the pre-match price for each player converted to a probability. Figures in this article are a snapshot taken when it was written.

Limitations

Serve and return rates count only matches with full serve statistics, which are sparser for Challenger and lower-level events, and the tour average they are compared with covers every year on record. Head-to-head records count every meeting with a recorded winner, walkovers and retirements included. Charts and tables are a snapshot and do not update after publication.

About the desk

Who works on the Tennis Desk and how an article is put together. [Read about the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/)

Editorial standards

What we publish, what we check and how we decide what is fit to print. [Read our standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)

Corrections

Spotted an error? Write to hello@courtshark.ai and we will correct it and note the change. [Read the corrections policy](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)