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# Etcheverry vs Bellucci Prediction: Almaty Open 2026 Round of 32
- URL: https://courtshark.ai/blog/etcheverry-vs-bellucci-almaty-open-2026-prediction/
- Published: 2026-10-18T11:15:13.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-18T11:15:13.000Z
- Description: Bellucci's recent results challenge Etcheverry's ranking advantage, but Court Shark's model sees their Almaty Open meeting as even.
- Author: Court Shark Desk
- Tags: match-preview, Mattia Bellucci, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Almaty Open 2026, Hard, ATP, Form

In this analysis

1. [Key takeaway](#key-takeaway)
2. [Bellucci arrives with the stronger recent record](#s-bellucci-arrives-with-the-stronger-recent-record)
3. [The ranking gap needs the context of their opponents](#s-the-ranking-gap-needs-the-context-of-their-opponents)
4. [Serve and workload could turn the match](#s-serve-and-workload-could-turn-the-match)
5. [The prediction](#s-the-prediction)
6. [Explore this matchup](#explore)
7. [Methodology and sources](#methodology)

Key takeaway

Bellucci's form is a reason to question Etcheverry's ranking advantage, not to declare a clear favorite. Court Shark's model sees an even match, while its AI analyst picks Bellucci.

Mattia Bellucci's recent form makes the ranking gap a poor guide to his Almaty Open round of 32 match against Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Court Shark's model gives each player a 50% chance, rather than making Bellucci the favorite.

## Bellucci arrives with the stronger recent record

An 8-2 record in his latest matches gives [Mattia Bellucci](https://courtshark.ai/players/mattia-bellucci-208233) a stronger recent case than [Tomas Martin Etcheverry](https://courtshark.ai/players/tomas-martin-etcheverry-144869), whose corresponding record was 3-7\. That contrast argues against treating the higher-ranked Argentine as a clear favorite, though it does not establish Bellucci as the better player in this matchup. Form favors Bellucci.

Their Almaty Open round of 32 meeting on Monday, October 19 puts that contrast directly into the hard-court draw. Bellucci arrives after a four-match winning run, while Etcheverry lost his latest four matches. For Bellucci, this is a chance to carry recent success into another ATP Tour match; for Etcheverry, it is an opportunity to stop a losing run.

### Two years of form

Article snapshot, Oct 18, 2026 · Not live

Each player's pre-match Elo rating since Oct 19, 2024\. Latest: Tomas Martin Etcheverry 1882 (Oct 10, 2026), Mattia Bellucci 1859 (Oct 16, 2026).

__Pre-match Elo rating over the last two years__
| Player                  | Start of window     | Two-year peak       | Latest              |
| ----------------------- | ------------------- | ------------------- | ------------------- |
| Mattia Bellucci         | 1885 (Oct 19, 2024) | 1890 (Oct 20, 2024) | 1859 (Oct 16, 2026) |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1897 (Oct 23, 2024) | 1983 (Apr 28, 2026) | 1882 (Oct 10, 2026) |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

## The ranking gap needs the context of their opponents

Bellucci was ranked No. 86, compared with Etcheverry at No. 31\. The gap is substantial. But rankings alone offer an incomplete guide here, because their latest results point in the opposite direction and came across different levels of competition.

At the Jinan Challenger, Bellucci's latest wins came against Elias Ymer, Luka Pavlovic, Alexander Shevchenko and Shintaro Mochizuki. He also beat Ymer and Alexandre Muller in Shanghai before losing to Yi Zhou. The Challenger setting limits how directly that winning run translates to this ATP Tour opponent, even though his Shanghai results provide some support beyond that level.

Etcheverry's recent wins all came at the US Open, against Vit Kopriva, Jacob Fearnley and Mariano Navone. His subsequent defeats came against Alex Michelsen, Kyrian Jacquet, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Dalibor Svrcina. My reading is that Bellucci's form is the better corrective to the ranking gap, rather than sufficient evidence for a strong favorite.

### Recent form

Article snapshot, Oct 18, 2026 · Not live

Each player's most recent completed matches, up to 10, oldest on the left.

__Recent results by player, oldest first__
| Player                  | Date         | Result | Opponent             | Score           | Event               |
| ----------------------- | ------------ | ------ | -------------------- | --------------- | ------------------- |
| Mattia Bellucci         | Oct 2, 2026  | W      | Adam Walton          | 7-5 6-2         | Jingshan Challenger |
| Mattia Bellucci         | Oct 3, 2026  | W      | Yanki Erel           | 6-4 6-4         | Jingshan Challenger |
| Mattia Bellucci         | Oct 4, 2026  | L      | Lloyd Harris         | 6-1 3-6 6-7     | Jingshan Challenger |
| Mattia Bellucci         | Oct 5, 2026  | W      | Elias Ymer           | 4-6 7-5 7-6(3)  | ATP Shanghai        |
| Mattia Bellucci         | Oct 6, 2026  | W      | Alexandre Muller     | 6-4 6-2         | ATP Shanghai        |
| Mattia Bellucci         | Oct 7, 2026  | L      | Yi Zhou              | 4-6 6-3 6-7(4)  | ATP Shanghai        |
| Mattia Bellucci         | Oct 13, 2026 | W      | Elias Ymer           | 6-2 6-1         | Jinan Challenger    |
| Mattia Bellucci         | Oct 15, 2026 | W      | Luka Pavlovic        | 6-4 6-4         | Jinan Challenger    |
| Mattia Bellucci         | Oct 16, 2026 | W      | Alexander Shevchenko | 6-4 6-4         | Jinan Challenger    |
| Mattia Bellucci         | Oct 17, 2026 | W      | Shintaro Mochizuki   | 6-2 7-6         | Jinan Challenger    |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Jul 28, 2026 | L      | Brandon Nakashima    | 3-6 4-6         | Washington          |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Aug 5, 2026  | L      | Nuno Borges          | 4-6 2-6         | Canada Masters      |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Aug 15, 2026 | L      | Terence Atmane       | 3-6 6-7(4)      | Cincinnati Masters  |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Aug 30, 2026 | W      | Vit Kopriva          | 6-3 6-4 6-0     | US Open             |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Sep 2, 2026  | W      | Jacob Fearnley       | 6-3 6-3 3-6 6-3 | US Open             |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Sep 4, 2026  | W      | Mariano Navone       | 6-4 6-4 6-3     | US Open             |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Sep 6, 2026  | L      | Alex Michelsen       | 6-7(6) 4-6 4-6  | US Open             |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Sep 25, 2026 | L      | Kyrian Jacquet       | 2-6 3-6         | Hangzhou            |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Oct 1, 2026  | L      | Stefanos Tsitsipas   | 6-4 3-6 4-6     | Tokyo               |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Oct 10, 2026 | L      | Dalibor Svrcina      | 3-6 6-3 5-7     | ATP Shanghai        |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

## Serve and workload could turn the match

Etcheverry held 85% of his service games on hard courts over the latest year, compared with Bellucci's 83%. That offers a concrete route for the higher-ranked player to resist the recent results: protecting serve would limit Bellucci's opportunities to turn better form into a lead. Serve remains Etcheverry's counterargument.

Bellucci's return record points the other way: he broke in 24% of return games on this surface, against Etcheverry's 18%. The practical test is whether Bellucci can create enough pressure on return to offset Etcheverry's stronger service record, rather than simply matching him through holds.

Workload could also change the balance. Bellucci played eight matches in the last 14 days, while Etcheverry played only once during that span. Bellucci also won their only previous meeting, but that match was on clay in Rome, so it offers limited guidance for the conditions in Almaty.

### Head-to-head by surface

Article snapshot, Oct 18, 2026 · Not live

Mattia Bellucci and Tomas Martin Etcheverry have met once. Mattia Bellucci leads 1-0.

__Head-to-head record, Mattia Bellucci first__
| Surface      | Mattia Bellucci | Tomas Martin Etcheverry |
| ------------ | --------------- | ----------------------- |
| All surfaces | 1               | 0                       |
| Clay         | 1               | 0                       |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

## The prediction

Court Shark's model lists Etcheverry as its pick, but gives both players a 50% chance, so there is no probability advantage. The market consensus has Etcheverry at 52%. This is effectively level.

Reading the matchup without the market, Court Shark's AI analyst picks Bellucci and therefore disagrees with the model's listed selection. His stronger recent results and more productive hard-court return record support that choice, while the model's even forecast argues against dismissing Etcheverry's ranking advantage entirely.

Court Shark's match-length forecast has a median total of 23 games. Its middle half of outcomes runs from 20 to 30 games, a range rather than a prediction of an exact total.

The forecast also gives a deciding set a 40% chance. Bellucci's return game is the specific test: Etcheverry's ability to protect serve offers the clearest way to keep the recent form gap from deciding this match.

### How long it could go

Article snapshot, Oct 18, 2026 · Not live

A 52% chance the match lasts 20 to 30 games; 23 is the middle of the range.

__Chance of each total number of games in the match__
| Total games | Chance |
| ----------- | ------ |
| 14          | 0.5%   |
| 15          | 1.5%   |
| 16          | 2.7%   |
| 17          | 5.3%   |
| 18          | 6.3%   |
| 19          | 8.1%   |
| 20          | 7.8%   |
| 21          | 5.2%   |
| 22          | 9.0%   |
| 23          | 7.3%   |
| 24          | 1.0%   |
| 25          | 3.4%   |
| 26          | 5.3%   |
| 27          | 2.6%   |
| 28          | 3.4%   |
| 29          | 3.6%   |
| 30          | 3.8%   |
| 31          | 4.8%   |
| 32          | 5.0%   |
| 33          | 3.2%   |
| 34          | 2.3%   |
| 35          | 3.6%   |
| 36          | 2.4%   |
| 37          | 0.3%   |
| 38          | 0.8%   |
| 39          | 0.9%   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

## Explore this matchup

Compare both players side by side: recent results, surfaces, serve and return.

### Player comparison

Article snapshot, Oct 18, 2026 · Not live

Each measure on the same scale: recent wins, wins on this surface, head-to-head wins and the model's chance.

__Player comparison__
| Measure               | Mattia Bellucci | Tomas Martin Etcheverry |
| --------------------- | --------------- | ----------------------- |
| Wins, last 10 matches | 80% (8-2)       | 30% (3-7)               |
| Wins, last 10 on hard | 80% (8-2)       | 30% (3-7)               |
| Head-to-head wins     | 100% (1-0)      | 0% (0-1)                |
| Model win probability | 50%             | 50%                     |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Win rate by surface

Article snapshot, Oct 18, 2026 · Not live

Share of matches won on each surface across each player's last 50 matches with full statistics.

__Win rate by surface__
| Surface | Mattia Bellucci | Tomas Martin Etcheverry |
| ------- | --------------- | ----------------------- |
| Hard    | 64% (18-10)     | 40% (8-12)              |
| Clay    | 54% (7-6)       | 67% (18-9)              |
| Grass   | 56% (5-4)       | Too few matches (3)     |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Serve and return on hard courts

Article snapshot, Oct 18, 2026 · Not live

How often each player held serve and broke serve on hard over their last 50 matches with full statistics, against the tour's all-years average on the surface.

__Hold and break rates on hard__
| Measure             | Mattia Bellucci | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | Tour average, all years |
| ------------------- | --------------- | ----------------------- | ----------------------- |
| Service games held  | 82%             | 83%                     | 77%                     |
| Return games broken | 28%             | 17%                     | 23%                     |
| Matches in sample   | 28              | 20                      |                         |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Model and market on Mattia Bellucci

Article snapshot, Oct 18, 2026 · Not live

Mattia Bellucci's chance as the market consensus priced it from the opening line, next to the Court Shark model.

__Mattia Bellucci's chance to win__
| Reading           | Mattia Bellucci | Tomas Martin Etcheverry |
| ----------------- | --------------- | ----------------------- |
| Opening consensus | 50%             | 50%                     |
| Latest consensus  | 48%             | 52%                     |
| Court Shark model | 50%             | 50%                     |

Source: Court Shark model and pre-match market consensus.View data table

### Model win probability

Article snapshot, Oct 18, 2026 · Not live

The Court Shark model's chance for each player to win this match.

__Model win probability by player__
| Player                  | Win probability | Recent form (last 10) |
| ----------------------- | --------------- | --------------------- |
| Mattia Bellucci         | 50%             | 8-2                   |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 50%             | 3-7                   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Ways to win

Article snapshot, Oct 18, 2026 · Not live

Every way the match can finish. The likeliest single result is Tomas Martin Etcheverry in straight sets (30%).

__Chance of each final set score__
| Result                           | Chance |
| -------------------------------- | ------ |
| Mattia Bellucci wins 2-0         | 30%    |
| Mattia Bellucci wins 2-1         | 20%    |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry wins 2-1 | 20%    |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry wins 2-0 | 30%    |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Service games held: where they stand

Article snapshot, Oct 18, 2026 · Not live

Each dot is one of the ATP top 100 with enough matches in the last 52 weeks. Mattia Bellucci is 61st of 94; Tomas Martin Etcheverry is 41st of 94.

__Service games held, last 52 weeks, against the ATP top 100__
| Player                     | Service games held | Place      |
| -------------------------- | ------------------ | ---------- |
| Mattia Bellucci            | 79.9%              | 61st of 94 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry    | 82.6%              | 41st of 94 |
| Field median               | 81.8%              |            |
| Field best (Jannik Sinner) | 94.6%              | 1st        |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

[Explore this matchup](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=144869&p2=208233)

Court Shark win probabilities are statistical estimates, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

Our forecast

Court Shark's model

Tomas Martin Etcheverry 50% to win

Match shape

Tomas Martin Etcheverry in straight sets: 30%

Deciding set: 40%

Total games: median 23, middle half 20 to 30

AI analyst

Picks Mattia Bellucci (disagrees with the model)

Its case: Bellucci has won 8 of his past 10 hard-court matches and arrives on a three-match streak, while Etcheverry is 3-7 over his last 10 on hard and has lost four straight.

The risk it names: The biggest risk is that Etcheverry’s recent schedule has been much tougher and the fast indoor altitude conditions suit his 196 cm first-strike game.

Estimates recorded before play, not certainties.

Keep exploring

[See the profile of Tomas Martin Etcheverry](https://courtshark.ai/players/tomas-martin-etcheverry-144869)[Create a free account to keep it](https://courtshark.ai/register?redirect=%2Fplayers%2Ftomas-martin-etcheverry-144869)

Match context

Players

Mattia Bellucci  
vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Event

Almaty Open

Surface

Hard

Round

Round of 32

Date

Monday, October 19

Article snapshot · Not live

Continue your research

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Related on Court Shark

- [How our match model works](https://courtshark.ai/blog/methodology/)
- [Open the full head-to-head](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=144869&p2=208233)
- [Our editorial standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)
- [About the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/)

## Methodology and sources

How we build model estimates and where our information comes from.

Model estimates and observed results

The win probabilities come from the Court Shark match model, trained on completed ATP and WTA matches. A probability says how often a player in this position wins, not that one result will happen. The model's number for a match is recorded before play and never changed afterwards, so it can be checked against the result.

Sources and citations

Results, scores, rankings and serve statistics come from the Court Shark match database. The market consensus is the pre-match price for each player converted to a probability. Figures in this article are a snapshot taken when it was written.

Limitations

Serve and return rates count only matches with full serve statistics, which are sparser for Challenger and lower-level events, and the tour average they are compared with covers every year on record. Head-to-head records count every meeting with a recorded winner, walkovers and retirements included. Charts and tables are a snapshot and do not update after publication.

About the desk

Who works on the Tennis Desk and how an article is put together. [Read about the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/)

Editorial standards

What we publish, what we check and how we decide what is fit to print. [Read our standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)

Corrections

Spotted an error? Write to hello@courtshark.ai and we will correct it and note the change. [Read the corrections policy](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)