> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://courtshark.ai/blog/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Lehecka vs Collignon Prediction: BNP Paribas Fortis European Open 2026 - URL: https://courtshark.ai/blog/lehecka-vs-collignon-bnp-paribas-fortis-european-open-2026-prediction/ - Published: 2026-10-22T03:11:08.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-22T03:11:08.000Z - Description: Lehecka's stronger recent results are the clearest separator against Collignon, with his hard-court serving record supporting the favorite's case. - Author: Court Shark Desk - Tags: match-preview, Raphael Collignon, Jiri Lehecka, BNP Paribas Fortis European Open 2026, Hard, ATP, Form In this analysis 1. [Key takeaway](#key-takeaway) 2. [Recent results favor Lehecka in Brussels](#s-recent-results-favor-lehecka-in-brussels) 3. [The form advantage also holds on hard courts](#s-the-form-advantage-also-holds-on-hard-courts) 4. [Collignon's return offers a route back](#s-collignon-s-return-offers-a-route-back) 5. [The prediction](#s-the-prediction) 6. [Explore this matchup](#explore) 7. [Methodology and sources](#methodology) Key takeaway Recent form separates these players most clearly, and the same advantage holds on hard courts. Court Shark's model favors Lehecka, while Collignon's better return record offers a concrete route to an upset. Raphael Collignon faces Jiri Lehecka in the round of 16 at the BNP Paribas Fortis European Open. Lehecka's stronger recent form is the clearest separator, with Court Shark's model giving him a 74% chance to win. ## Recent results favor Lehecka in Brussels A 7-3 record in his latest matches gives [Jiri Lehecka](https://courtshark.ai/players/jiri-lehecka-208103) the clearer form advantage over [Raphael Collignon](https://courtshark.ai/players/raphael-collignon-209920), whose record was 4-6\. That difference provides a stronger basis for favoring Lehecka than the limited history between the players, which offers little evidence of a lasting matchup advantage. Recent results favor Lehecka. Thursday's match at the BNP Paribas Fortis European Open brings Collignon into the round of 16 in his home country against a higher-ranked opponent. Collignon arrived after a win over Nishesh Basavareddy, while Lehecka's most recent match ended in defeat against Rafael Jodar. Those latest results point in the opposite direction from their broader form. For Collignon, the immediate task is to build on his latest win against an opponent whose recent record had been considerably stronger. ### Ways to win Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live Every way the match can finish. The likeliest single result is Jiri Lehecka in straight sets (52%). __Chance of each final set score__ | Result | Chance | | -------------------------- | ------ | | Raphael Collignon wins 2-0 | 13% | | Raphael Collignon wins 2-1 | 13% | | Jiri Lehecka wins 2-1 | 22% | | Jiri Lehecka wins 2-0 | 52% | Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table ### Recent form Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live Each player's most recent completed matches, up to 10, oldest on the left. __Recent results by player, oldest first__ | Player | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | Event | | ----------------- | ------------ | ------ | --------------------- | ---------------------- | ---------------------------- | | Raphael Collignon | Jul 15, 2026 | W | Lorenzo Sonego | 7-6(2) 7-6(5) | Gstaad | | Raphael Collignon | Jul 17, 2026 | W | Valentin Vacherot | 7-6(7) 4-6 7-5 | Gstaad | | Raphael Collignon | Jul 18, 2026 | W | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 1-6 7-6(5) 7-5 | Gstaad | | Raphael Collignon | Jul 19, 2026 | L | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 4-6 7-6(3) 3-6 | Gstaad | | Raphael Collignon | Jul 21, 2026 | L | Daniel Altmaier | 3-6 2-6 | Kitzbuhel | | Raphael Collignon | Aug 5, 2026 | L | Alexei Popyrin | 4-6 3-6 | Canada Masters | | Raphael Collignon | Aug 13, 2026 | L | Mariano Navone | 3-6 6-7(3) | Cincinnati Masters | | Raphael Collignon | Aug 25, 2026 | L | Rinky Hijikata | 6-3 6-7(7) 6-7(5) | Winston-Salem | | Raphael Collignon | Aug 30, 2026 | L | Sebastian Gorzny | 6-3 3-6 6-3 3-6 6-7(9) | US Open | | Raphael Collignon | Oct 20, 2026 | W | Nishesh Basavareddy | 3-6 6-3 6-4 | ATP Brussels | | Jiri Lehecka | Sep 4, 2026 | L | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 6-2 1-6 6-7(3) 1-6 | US Open | | Jiri Lehecka | Sep 18, 2026 | W | Ben Shelton | 6-4 6-4 | Davis Cup QLS R2: USA vs CZE | | Jiri Lehecka | Sep 19, 2026 | W | Learner Tien | 6-3 7-5 | Davis Cup QLS R2: USA vs CZE | | Jiri Lehecka | Oct 1, 2026 | W | Zizou Bergs | 6-3 6-7(3) 6-3 | Tokyo | | Jiri Lehecka | Oct 3, 2026 | W | Ugo Humbert | 5-7 6-4 6-4 | Tokyo | | Jiri Lehecka | Oct 4, 2026 | W | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 6-1 6-1 | Tokyo | | Jiri Lehecka | Oct 5, 2026 | W | Valentin Vacherot | 6-4 6-2 | Tokyo | | Jiri Lehecka | Oct 6, 2026 | L | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(4) 4-6 | Tokyo | | Jiri Lehecka | Oct 10, 2026 | W | Nuno Borges | 6-3 3-6 6-3 | Shanghai Masters | | Jiri Lehecka | Oct 12, 2026 | L | Rafael Jodar | 6-4 6-7(2) 4-6 | Shanghai Masters | Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table ## The form advantage also holds on hard courts Surface results tell the same story. Each player's recent hard-court record matched his overall record, so Lehecka's advantage was not simply the result of comparing success on different surfaces. That makes recent form a more direct guide to this match rather than a reason to question whether his results transfer to hard courts. Rankings supported the same direction: Lehecka stood at No. 16 and Collignon at No. 38\. The ranking gap adds context to the recent results, though it does not identify where this match is most likely to be decided. Over the past year, Lehecka held 86% of his service games on hard courts, compared with Collignon's 82%. My reading is that this serving advantage strengthens the favorite's case beyond his recent wins. Protecting his own serve matters particularly for Collignon, because Lehecka's record suggests breaks may be harder to recover. ## Collignon's return offers a route back Collignon's return record complicates the favorite's case. He broke in 22% of return games in the hard-court window, while Lehecka broke in 20%. That gives Collignon a plausible way to offset the serving disadvantage if he can convert return opportunities rather than rely on holding throughout a set. Their previous meeting favored Lehecka, who won at the US Open in straight sets, but a single encounter cannot establish a dependable pattern between them. The result supports the favorite without settling whether Collignon can make this meeting closer. Match readiness is another possible source of change: Collignon last played two days ago, while Lehecka had gone 10 days without a match. Collignon has the more immediate competitive reference. If that recent outing helps him start more effectively, it could give him an early opening despite the broader difference in their results. ## The prediction Court Shark's model favors Lehecka with a 74% chance to win, while the market consensus gives him 72%. Both favor the same player. Their forecasts differ only slightly, with each leaving Collignon as the underdog despite his latest victory and the better return record in the surface window. Court Shark's AI analyst, which reads the matchup without the market, also picks Lehecka, agreeing with the model. Stronger recent form and a better service record provide the clearest tennis case for that choice, rather than the limited history between these opponents. Court Shark's scoreline forecast gives Lehecka a 52% chance of winning in straight sets, with a median total of 23 games. Projected outcomes have a middle half running from 20 to 30 games, leaving room for competitive sets within a favorite's win. Collignon's clearest opening is to turn his return advantage into breaks before Lehecka's stronger service record can decide the sets. ### How long it could go Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live A 52% chance the match lasts 20 to 30 games; 23 is the middle of the range. __Chance of each total number of games in the match__ | Total games | Chance | | ----------- | ------ | | 14 | 0.4% | | 15 | 1.4% | | 16 | 2.5% | | 17 | 5.1% | | 18 | 6.1% | | 19 | 8.2% | | 20 | 8.1% | | 21 | 5.3% | | 22 | 10.3% | | 23 | 8.9% | | 24 | 0.6% | | 25 | 3.3% | | 26 | 6.6% | | 27 | 1.6% | | 28 | 2.3% | | 29 | 2.5% | | 30 | 2.7% | | 31 | 4.0% | | 32 | 4.6% | | 33 | 2.9% | | 34 | 2.1% | | 35 | 4.1% | | 36 | 3.3% | | 37 | 0.2% | | 38 | 1.0% | | 39 | 1.7% | Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table ## Explore this matchup Compare both players side by side: recent results, surfaces, serve and return. ### Player comparison Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live Each measure on the same scale: recent wins, wins on this surface, head-to-head wins and the model's chance. __Player comparison__ | Measure | Raphael Collignon | Jiri Lehecka | | --------------------- | ----------------- | ------------ | | Wins, last 10 matches | 40% (4-6) | 70% (7-3) | | Wins, last 10 on hard | 40% (4-6) | 70% (7-3) | | Head-to-head wins | 0% (0-1) | 100% (1-0) | | Model win probability | 26% | 74% | Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table ### Head-to-head by surface Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live Raphael Collignon and Jiri Lehecka have met once. Jiri Lehecka leads 1-0. __Head-to-head record, Raphael Collignon first__ | Surface | Raphael Collignon | Jiri Lehecka | | ------------ | ----------------- | ------------ | | All surfaces | 0 | 1 | | Hard | 0 | 1 | Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table ### Win rate by surface Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live Share of matches won on each surface across each player's last 50 matches with full statistics. __Win rate by surface__ | Surface | Raphael Collignon | Jiri Lehecka | | ------- | ----------------- | ------------ | | Hard | 56% (14-11) | 63% (20-12) | | Clay | 78% (14-4) | 67% (6-3) | | Grass | 57% (4-3) | 67% (6-3) | Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table ### Serve and return on hard courts Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live How often each player held serve and broke serve on hard over their last 50 matches with full statistics, against the tour's all-years average on the surface. __Hold and break rates on hard__ | Measure | Raphael Collignon | Jiri Lehecka | Tour average, all years | | ------------------- | ----------------- | ------------ | ----------------------- | | Service games held | 81% | 87% | 77% | | Return games broken | 22% | 21% | 23% | | Matches in sample | 25 | 32 | | Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table ### Model and market on Raphael Collignon Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live Raphael Collignon's chance as the market consensus priced it from the opening line, next to the Court Shark model. __Raphael Collignon's chance to win__ | Reading | Raphael Collignon | Jiri Lehecka | | ----------------- | ----------------- | ------------ | | Opening consensus | 24% | 76% | | Latest consensus | 28% | 72% | | Court Shark model | 26% | 74% | Source: Court Shark model and pre-match market consensus.View data table ### Model win probability Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live The Court Shark model's chance for each player to win this match. __Model win probability by player__ | Player | Win probability | Recent form (last 10) | | ----------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | | Raphael Collignon | 26% | 4-6 | | Jiri Lehecka | 74% | 7-3 | Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table ### Service games held: where they stand Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live Each dot is one of the ATP top 100 with enough matches in the last 52 weeks. Raphael Collignon is 47th of 94; Jiri Lehecka is 8th of 94. __Service games held, last 52 weeks, against the ATP top 100__ | Player | Service games held | Place | | -------------------------- | ------------------ | ---------- | | Raphael Collignon | 81.6% | 47th of 94 | | Jiri Lehecka | 87.8% | 8th of 94 | | Field median | 81.6% | | | Field best (Jannik Sinner) | 94.5% | 1st | Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table ### Two years of form Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live Each player's pre-match Elo rating since Oct 23, 2024\. Latest: Jiri Lehecka 2074 (Oct 12, 2026), Raphael Collignon 1934 (Aug 30, 2026). __Pre-match Elo rating over the last two years__ | Player | Start of window | Two-year peak | Latest | | ----------------- | ------------------- | ------------------- | ------------------- | | Raphael Collignon | 1700 (Oct 23, 2024) | 2007 (Jul 19, 2026) | 1934 (Aug 30, 2026) | | Jiri Lehecka | 2005 (Oct 23, 2024) | 2074 (Oct 12, 2026) | 2074 (Oct 12, 2026) | Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table [Explore this matchup](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=208103&p2=209920) Court Shark win probabilities are statistical estimates, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed. Our forecast Court Shark's model Jiri Lehecka 74% to win Match shape Jiri Lehecka in straight sets: 52% Deciding set: 35% Total games: median 23, middle half 20 to 30 AI analyst Picks Jiri Lehecka (agrees with the model) Its case: Lehecka has the stronger hard-court run, 7-3 in his latest 10 versus Collignon’s 4-6, and his 9.1% ace rate, 82.5% hold rate and 62.7% break-point saving rate suit an indoor court rated 1.34 for serve dominance; he also won their only meeting, 6-4 6-4 6-4 on hard. The risk it names: Collignon is fresh off a three-set win and is a 191 cm server, so his first-strike tennis is the main upset risk, but Lehecka’s recent wins have come against markedly tougher opposition. Estimates recorded before play, not certainties. Keep exploring [Open the full head-to-head](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=208103&p2=209920)[Create a free account to keep it](https://courtshark.ai/register?redirect=%2Fh2h%3Fp1%3D208103%26p2%3D209920) Match context Players Raphael Collignon vs Jiri Lehecka Event BNP Paribas Fortis European Open Surface Hard Round Round of 16 Date Thursday, October 22 Article snapshot · Not live Continue your research Compare form, explore surfaces and follow live match context. [Explore Premium](https://courtshark.ai/register?redirect=/start-premium)[See what's included](https://courtshark.ai/premium) - Advanced filters and splits - Save your research - Live context and updates Related on Court Shark - [How our match model works](https://courtshark.ai/blog/methodology/) - [Our editorial standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/) - [About the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/) ## Methodology and sources How we build model estimates and where our information comes from. Model estimates and observed results The win probabilities come from the Court Shark match model, trained on completed ATP and WTA matches. A probability says how often a player in this position wins, not that one result will happen. The model's number for a match is recorded before play and never changed afterwards, so it can be checked against the result. Sources and citations Results, scores, rankings and serve statistics come from the Court Shark match database. The market consensus is the pre-match price for each player converted to a probability. Figures in this article are a snapshot taken when it was written. Limitations Serve and return rates count only matches with full serve statistics, which are sparser for Challenger and lower-level events, and the tour average they are compared with covers every year on record. Head-to-head records count every meeting with a recorded winner, walkovers and retirements included. Charts and tables are a snapshot and do not update after publication. About the desk Who works on the Tennis Desk and how an article is put together. [Read about the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/) Editorial standards What we publish, what we check and how we decide what is fit to print. [Read our standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/) Corrections Spotted an error? Write to hello@courtshark.ai and we will correct it and note the change. [Read the corrections policy](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)