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# Medvedev vs Bublik: Almaty Open win ends in retirement
- URL: https://courtshark.ai/blog/medvedev-bublik-almaty-open-retirement-analysis/
- Published: 2026-10-25T07:01:12.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-25T07:01:12.000Z
- Description: Medvedev was already ahead when Bublik retired in Almaty. The result matched the forecast, but it was not a completed straight-sets win.
- Author: Court Shark Desk
- Tags: results, Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Bublik, Almaty Open 2026, Hard

In this analysis

1. [Key takeaway](#key-takeaway)
2. [Medvedev was ahead before the retirement](#s-medvedev-was-ahead-before-the-retirement)
3. [The favorite won, without settling the probability](#s-the-favorite-won-without-settling-the-probability)
4. [Explore this matchup](#explore)
5. [Methodology and sources](#methodology)

Key takeaway

Medvedev's opening-set lead fit his status as the favorite. Bublik's retirement made him the winner, but left no completed match on which to judge the full extent of his advantage.

Daniil Medvedev advanced after Alexander Bublik retired following a 6-3 opening set, rather than a completed straight-sets win. The favorite was already strengthening his position, but the early finish limits the verdict.

## Medvedev was ahead before the retirement

Medvedev's lead preceded the early finish. [Daniil Medvedev](https://courtshark.ai/players/daniil-medvedev-106421) won the opening set 6-3 before [Alexander Bublik](https://courtshark.ai/players/alexander-bublik-122330) retired from their Almaty Open semifinal. His advantage was established on court before the retirement settled the result, making the opening set the useful part of this match to assess.

During the opening set, Medvedev's estimated win chance rose from 72% to 83% as he established an early lead. His position was strengthening before the retirement ended the contest. That movement fits a favorite gaining control rather than a player relying on an abrupt ending to escape a difficult position.

Their matchup history also favored Medvedev, who arrived with a 6-1 overall advantage and a 4-0 record against Bublik on hard courts. My reading is that the opening set fit an established surface pattern rather than representing a surprising reversal. Bublik had yet to beat him on this surface.

### How the match turned

Article snapshot, Oct 25, 2026 · Not live

Daniil Medvedev's chance rose from 72% to 83% after moving 3-1 ahead in the first set. The match ended when Alexander Bublik retired.

__Daniil Medvedev's chance of winning after each game__
| Score      | Daniil Medvedev win chance |
| ---------- | -------------------------- |
| Start      | 70%                        |
| Set 1, 1-0 | 72%                        |
| Set 1, 1-1 | 70%                        |
| Set 1, 2-1 | 72%                        |
| Set 1, 3-1 | 83%                        |
| Set 1, 4-1 | 85%                        |
| Set 1, 4-2 | 84%                        |
| Set 1, 5-2 | 86%                        |
| Set 1, 5-3 | 85%                        |
| Set 1, 6-3 | 87%                        |
| Retirement | 100%                       |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

## The favorite won, without settling the probability

Court Shark's model gave Medvedev a 70% chance before the match. The market consensus had him at 64% as play began. Both favored the eventual winner, though Court Shark's estimate expressed greater confidence in Medvedev than the market did at the start of this semifinal.

The result matched the pick. One victory cannot establish whether that probability was well calibrated, especially when the match ended through retirement rather than a completed contest. It shows that the favored player advanced, not that the model's degree of confidence was proven correct or that a straight-sets victory was inevitable.

Recent form offered a separate reason to favor Medvedev: he entered with an 8-2 record, compared with Bublik's 6-4\. Those records describe the players coming in, not an explanation for the retirement. In my assessment, Medvedev's stronger recent record and favorable history made his opening-set advantage consistent with expectations, even though the ending was unusual.

### What the model expected, and what happened

Article snapshot, Oct 25, 2026 · Not live

Daniil Medvedev won 6-3\. The model had made them the favorite.

__Pre-match model probability and the result__
| Player           | Model before the match | Result |
| ---------------- | ---------------------- | ------ |
| Daniil Medvedev  | 70%                    | Won    |
| Alexander Bublik | 30%                    | Lost   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

## Explore this matchup

Compare both players side by side: recent results, surfaces, serve and return.

### Player comparison

Article snapshot, Oct 25, 2026 · Not live

Each measure on the same scale: recent wins, wins on this surface, head-to-head wins and the model's chance.

__Player comparison__
| Measure               | Daniil Medvedev | Alexander Bublik |
| --------------------- | --------------- | ---------------- |
| Wins, last 10 matches | 80% (8-2)       | 60% (6-4)        |
| Wins, last 10 on hard | 80% (8-2)       | 60% (6-4)        |
| Head-to-head wins     | 86% (6-1)       | 14% (1-6)        |
| Model win probability | 70%             | 30%              |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Recent form

Article snapshot, Oct 25, 2026 · Not live

Each player's most recent completed matches, up to 10, oldest on the left.

__Recent results by player, oldest first__
| Player           | Date         | Result | Opponent            | Score                  | Event            |
| ---------------- | ------------ | ------ | ------------------- | ---------------------- | ---------------- |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 3, 2026  | W      | Jan Lennard Struff  | 6-4 6-3                | Beijing          |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 4, 2026  | W      | Francisco Cerundolo | 7-6(4) 6-3             | Beijing          |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 5, 2026  | L      | Novak Djokovic      |                        | Beijing          |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 10, 2026 | W      | Jan Lennard Struff  | 4-6 6-4 6-3            | Shanghai Masters |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 12, 2026 | W      | Dalibor Svrcina     | 6-2 6-3                | Shanghai Masters |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 14, 2026 | W      | Stefanos Tsitsipas  | 6-4 7-5                | Shanghai Masters |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 16, 2026 | W      | Tommy Paul          | 6-3 1-6 6-3            | Shanghai Masters |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 17, 2026 | L      | Rafael Jodar        | 3-6 4-6                | Shanghai Masters |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 22, 2026 | W      | Sho Shimabukuro     | 6-2 6-1                | ATP Almaty       |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 23, 2026 | W      | Terence Atmane      | 6-4 6-4                | ATP Almaty       |
| Alexander Bublik | Aug 30, 2026 | W      | J J Wolf            | 6-4 6-2 3-6 6-1        | US Open          |
| Alexander Bublik | Sep 2, 2026  | W      | Adrian Mannarino    | 6-3 6-1 6-1            | US Open          |
| Alexander Bublik | Sep 4, 2026  | L      | Tommy Paul          | 4-6 6-3 7-6(4) 1-6 3-6 | US Open          |
| Alexander Bublik | Sep 25, 2026 | L      | Rafael Jodar        | 2-6 3-6                | Laver Cup        |
| Alexander Bublik | Oct 1, 2026  | L      | Jakub Mensik        | 4-6 6-7(5)             | Beijing          |
| Alexander Bublik | Oct 9, 2026  | W      | Tomas Machac        | 6-4 7-6(4)             | Shanghai Masters |
| Alexander Bublik | Oct 11, 2026 | W      | Brandon Nakashima   | 6-7(7) 6-3 7-6(5)      | Shanghai Masters |
| Alexander Bublik | Oct 13, 2026 | L      | Alexander Zverev    | 6-7(6) 6-4 6-7(1)      | Shanghai Masters |
| Alexander Bublik | Oct 22, 2026 | W      | Fabian Marozsan     |                        | ATP Almaty       |
| Alexander Bublik | Oct 23, 2026 | W      | Karen Khachanov     | 4-6 7-6(5) 7-6(5)      | ATP Almaty       |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Head-to-head by surface

Article snapshot, Oct 25, 2026 · Not live

Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Bublik have met 7 times. Daniil Medvedev leads 6-1.

__Head-to-head record, Daniil Medvedev first__
| Surface      | Daniil Medvedev | Alexander Bublik |
| ------------ | --------------- | ---------------- |
| All surfaces | 6               | 1                |
| Hard         | 4               | 0                |
| Clay         | 2               | 0                |
| Grass        | 0               | 1                |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Win rate by surface

Article snapshot, Oct 25, 2026 · Not live

Share of matches won on each surface across each player's last 50 matches with full statistics.

__Win rate by surface__
| Surface | Daniil Medvedev | Alexander Bublik |
| ------- | --------------- | ---------------- |
| Hard    | 76% (25-8)      | 59% (16-11)      |
| Clay    | 63% (5-3)       | 53% (8-7)        |
| Grass   | 67% (6-3)       | 63% (5-3)        |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Serve and return on hard courts

Article snapshot, Oct 25, 2026 · Not live

How often each player held serve and broke serve on hard over their last 50 matches with full statistics, against the tour's all-years average on the surface.

__Hold and break rates on hard__
| Measure             | Daniil Medvedev | Alexander Bublik | Tour average, all years |
| ------------------- | --------------- | ---------------- | ----------------------- |
| Service games held  | 88%             | 87%              | 77%                     |
| Return games broken | 28%             | 16%              | 23%                     |
| Matches in sample   | 33              | 27               |                         |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Model and market on Daniil Medvedev

Article snapshot, Oct 25, 2026 · Not live

Daniil Medvedev's chance as the market consensus priced it from the opening line, next to the Court Shark model.

__Daniil Medvedev's chance to win__
| Reading                | Daniil Medvedev | Alexander Bublik |
| ---------------------- | --------------- | ---------------- |
| Opening consensus      | 65%             | 35%              |
| Consensus at the start | 64%             | 36%              |
| Court Shark model      | 70%             | 30%              |

Source: Court Shark model and pre-match market consensus.View data table

### Model win probability

Article snapshot, Oct 25, 2026 · Not live

What the Court Shark model gave each player before the match started.

__Model win probability by player__
| Player           | Win probability | Recent form (last 10) |
| ---------------- | --------------- | --------------------- |
| Daniil Medvedev  | 70%             | 8-2                   |
| Alexander Bublik | 30%             | 6-4                   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Return games won: where they stand

Article snapshot, Oct 25, 2026 · Not live

Each dot is one of the ATP top 100 with enough matches in the last 52 weeks. Daniil Medvedev is 6th of 94; Alexander Bublik is 78th of 94.

__Return games won, last 52 weeks, against the ATP top 100__
| Player                             | Return games won | Place      |
| ---------------------------------- | ---------------- | ---------- |
| Daniil Medvedev                    | 28.2%            | 6th of 94  |
| Alexander Bublik                   | 15.6%            | 78th of 94 |
| Field median                       | 18.6%            |            |
| Field best (Daniel Merida Aguilar) | 30.7%            | 1st        |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

[Explore this matchup](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=106421&p2=122330)

Court Shark win probabilities are statistical estimates, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

Before the match

Our forecast, published October 23, 2026: Daniil Medvedev 70% to win.

[Medvedev vs Bublik Prediction: Almaty Open 2026 Semifinal](https://courtshark.ai/blog/medvedev-vs-bublik-almaty-open-2026-prediction/)

Keep exploring

[See the profile of Daniil Medvedev](https://courtshark.ai/players/daniil-medvedev-106421)[Create a free account to keep it](https://courtshark.ai/register?redirect=%2Fplayers%2Fdaniil-medvedev-106421)

Match context

Players

Daniil Medvedev  
vs Alexander Bublik

Event

Almaty Open

Surface

Hard

Round

Semifinal

Date

Saturday, October 24

Article snapshot · Not live

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Related on Court Shark

- [How our match model works](https://courtshark.ai/blog/methodology/)
- [Open the full head-to-head](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=106421&p2=122330)
- [Our editorial standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)
- [About the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/)

## Methodology and sources

How we build model estimates and where our information comes from.

Model estimates and observed results

The win probabilities come from the Court Shark match model, trained on completed ATP and WTA matches. A probability says how often a player in this position wins, not that one result will happen. The model's number for a match is recorded before play and never changed afterwards, so it can be checked against the result.

Sources and citations

Results, scores, rankings and serve statistics come from the Court Shark match database. The market consensus is the pre-match price for each player converted to a probability. Figures in this article are a snapshot taken when it was written.

Limitations

Serve and return rates count only matches with full serve statistics, which are sparser for Challenger and lower-level events, and the tour average they are compared with covers every year on record. Head-to-head records count every meeting with a recorded winner, walkovers and retirements included. Charts and tables are a snapshot and do not update after publication.

About the desk

Who works on the Tennis Desk and how an article is put together. [Read about the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/)

Editorial standards

What we publish, what we check and how we decide what is fit to print. [Read our standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)

Corrections

Spotted an error? Write to hello@courtshark.ai and we will correct it and note the change. [Read the corrections policy](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)