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# Medvedev vs Bublik Prediction: Almaty Open 2026 Semifinal
- URL: https://courtshark.ai/blog/medvedev-vs-bublik-almaty-open-2026-prediction/
- Published: 2026-10-23T23:51:49.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-23T23:51:49.000Z
- Description: Medvedev's unbeaten hard-court record against Bublik deserves weight, but their latest meeting and Bublik's serve keep the Almaty semifinal from being routine.
- Author: Court Shark Desk
- Tags: match-preview, Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Bublik, Almaty Open 2026, Hard, ATP, Head-to-head

In this analysis

1. [Key takeaway](#key-takeaway)
2. [A final place after Bublik's breakthrough](#s-a-final-place-after-bublik-s-breakthrough)
3. [The hard-court record carries more weight](#s-the-hard-court-record-carries-more-weight)
4. [Bublik's serve offers a route past history](#s-bublik-s-serve-offers-a-route-past-history)
5. [The prediction](#s-the-prediction)
6. [Explore this matchup](#explore)
7. [Methodology and sources](#methodology)

Key takeaway

Medvedev's hard-court superiority makes the head-to-head relevant, but the age of those meetings limits its authority. His current return advantage offers a stronger reason to favor him than history alone.

Daniil Medvedev meets Alexander Bublik in an Almaty Open semifinal, with their history still pointing toward Medvedev despite his defeat in their latest meeting. Court Shark's model gives Medvedev a 70% chance of winning.

## A final place after Bublik's breakthrough

On June 22, 2025, [Alexander Bublik](https://courtshark.ai/players/alexander-bublik-122330) beat [Daniil Medvedev](https://courtshark.ai/players/daniil-medvedev-106421) in Halle, ending a run of defeats against him. That result matters because it is their most recent meeting, but it came on grass rather than the hard courts they face in Almaty. The surface distinction matters here. Bublik proved he could win this matchup without yet overturning the evidence most relevant to Saturday.

Their semifinal offers a place in the Almaty Open final, with Medvedev seeking another title at an event he had already won. Bublik had not won the tournament. Medvedev entered at No. 5 and Bublik at No. 19, so the rankings also favored the player with the stronger history between them. For Bublik, winning in Kazakhstan would mean carrying his Halle breakthrough onto a surface where this opponent had remained unbeaten against him.

## The hard-court record carries more weight

Medvedev led the overall series 6-1 and held a 4-0 advantage on hard courts. That is meaningful support for his status as favorite, rather than a reason to assume the next meeting follows the same course. The distinction is important. The overall record combines different surfaces, while the hard-court results offer a narrower and more relevant comparison for Almaty.

The latest listed hard-court meeting was in Dubai in 2023, when Medvedev won in straight sets; their Canada Masters meeting in 2021 went to a deciding set. Those results show both a clear win and a closer contest, but neither provides a recent test of the matchup on this surface. Since Dubai, Medvedev also won their Madrid meeting before Bublik won in Halle. My reading is that the history deserves substantial weight, with its age preventing it from serving as the whole argument.

### Head-to-head by surface

Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live

Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Bublik have met 7 times. Daniil Medvedev leads 6-1.

__Head-to-head record, Daniil Medvedev first__
| Surface      | Daniil Medvedev | Alexander Bublik |
| ------------ | --------------- | ---------------- |
| All surfaces | 6               | 1                |
| Hard         | 4               | 0                |
| Clay         | 2               | 0                |
| Grass        | 0               | 1                |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

## Bublik's serve offers a route past history

Over the past year on hard courts, Bublik held 88% of his service games, compared with Medvedev's 86%. His serve offers a route. If Bublik can keep service games out of Medvedev's reach, the match can become less about their accumulated results and more about a few return opportunities.

The return figures favored Medvedev much more clearly: he broke in 29% of return games, while Bublik broke in 16%. That contrast suggests Bublik needs his serving advantage to survive sustained pressure, because his recent return record offers less support for recovering from a break. It also gives a current tennis reason to favor Medvedev, independent of their earlier meetings.

Workload could complicate that assessment. Medvedev played seven matches in the past fortnight, compared with Bublik's four, leaving the favorite with the heavier recent schedule. That does not establish fatigue, but any decline in Medvedev's return effectiveness would directly weaken his clearest advantage in this matchup.

## The prediction

Court Shark's model favors Medvedev with a 70% win probability, while the market consensus gives him 63%. Both favor the same player. The difference is in confidence, and the historical advantage supports the direction of the forecast more convincingly than it establishes its precise size.

Court Shark's AI analyst, which reads the matchup without the market, also picks Medvedev, agreeing with the model on the strength of his hard-court record and return advantage. Court Shark's scoreline forecast gives him a 48% chance of winning in straight sets, with a median total of 22 games. A straight-set win is the likeliest single result, not a certainty.

The middle half of the forecast runs from 19 to 29 games, leaving room for a competitive match even with a clear favorite. Bublik's service games are the specific test: holding them consistently would deny Medvedev the repeated return openings that make the older hard-court results persuasive today.

### Ways to win

Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live

Every way the match can finish. The likeliest single result is Daniil Medvedev in straight sets (48%).

__Chance of each final set score__
| Result                    | Chance |
| ------------------------- | ------ |
| Daniil Medvedev wins 2-0  | 48%    |
| Daniil Medvedev wins 2-1  | 22%    |
| Alexander Bublik wins 2-1 | 14%    |
| Alexander Bublik wins 2-0 | 16%    |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

## Explore this matchup

Compare both players side by side: recent results, surfaces, serve and return.

### Player comparison

Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live

Each measure on the same scale: recent wins, wins on this surface, head-to-head wins and the model's chance.

__Player comparison__
| Measure               | Daniil Medvedev | Alexander Bublik |
| --------------------- | --------------- | ---------------- |
| Wins, last 10 matches | 80% (8-2)       | 60% (6-4)        |
| Wins, last 10 on hard | 80% (8-2)       | 60% (6-4)        |
| Head-to-head wins     | 86% (6-1)       | 14% (1-6)        |
| Model win probability | 70%             | 30%              |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Recent form

Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live

Each player's most recent completed matches, up to 10, oldest on the left.

__Recent results by player, oldest first__
| Player           | Date         | Result | Opponent            | Score                  | Event            |
| ---------------- | ------------ | ------ | ------------------- | ---------------------- | ---------------- |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 3, 2026  | W      | Jan Lennard Struff  | 6-4 6-3                | Beijing          |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 4, 2026  | W      | Francisco Cerundolo | 7-6(4) 6-3             | Beijing          |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 5, 2026  | L      | Novak Djokovic      |                        | Beijing          |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 10, 2026 | W      | Jan Lennard Struff  | 4-6 6-4 6-3            | Shanghai Masters |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 12, 2026 | W      | Dalibor Svrcina     | 6-2 6-3                | Shanghai Masters |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 14, 2026 | W      | Stefanos Tsitsipas  | 6-4 7-5                | Shanghai Masters |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 16, 2026 | W      | Tommy Paul          | 6-3 1-6 6-3            | Shanghai Masters |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 17, 2026 | L      | Rafael Jodar        | 3-6 4-6                | Shanghai Masters |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 22, 2026 | W      | Sho Shimabukuro     | 6-2 6-1                | ATP Almaty       |
| Daniil Medvedev  | Oct 23, 2026 | W      | Terence Atmane      | 6-4 6-4                | ATP Almaty       |
| Alexander Bublik | Aug 30, 2026 | W      | J J Wolf            | 6-4 6-2 3-6 6-1        | US Open          |
| Alexander Bublik | Sep 2, 2026  | W      | Adrian Mannarino    | 6-3 6-1 6-1            | US Open          |
| Alexander Bublik | Sep 4, 2026  | L      | Tommy Paul          | 4-6 6-3 7-6(4) 1-6 3-6 | US Open          |
| Alexander Bublik | Sep 25, 2026 | L      | Rafael Jodar        | 2-6 3-6                | Laver Cup        |
| Alexander Bublik | Oct 1, 2026  | L      | Jakub Mensik        | 4-6 6-7(5)             | Beijing          |
| Alexander Bublik | Oct 9, 2026  | W      | Tomas Machac        | 6-4 7-6(4)             | Shanghai Masters |
| Alexander Bublik | Oct 11, 2026 | W      | Brandon Nakashima   | 6-7(7) 6-3 7-6(5)      | Shanghai Masters |
| Alexander Bublik | Oct 13, 2026 | L      | Alexander Zverev    | 6-7(6) 6-4 6-7(1)      | Shanghai Masters |
| Alexander Bublik | Oct 22, 2026 | W      | Fabian Marozsan     |                        | ATP Almaty       |
| Alexander Bublik | Oct 23, 2026 | W      | Karen Khachanov     | 4-6 7-6(5) 7-6(5)      | ATP Almaty       |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Win rate by surface

Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live

Share of matches won on each surface across each player's last 50 matches with full statistics.

__Win rate by surface__
| Surface | Daniil Medvedev | Alexander Bublik |
| ------- | --------------- | ---------------- |
| Hard    | 76% (25-8)      | 59% (16-11)      |
| Clay    | 63% (5-3)       | 53% (8-7)        |
| Grass   | 67% (6-3)       | 63% (5-3)        |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Serve and return on hard courts

Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live

How often each player held serve and broke serve on hard over their last 50 matches with full statistics, against the tour's all-years average on the surface.

__Hold and break rates on hard__
| Measure             | Daniil Medvedev | Alexander Bublik | Tour average, all years |
| ------------------- | --------------- | ---------------- | ----------------------- |
| Service games held  | 88%             | 87%              | 77%                     |
| Return games broken | 28%             | 16%              | 23%                     |
| Matches in sample   | 33              | 27               |                         |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Model and market on Daniil Medvedev

Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live

Daniil Medvedev's chance as the market consensus priced it from the opening line, next to the Court Shark model.

__Daniil Medvedev's chance to win__
| Reading           | Daniil Medvedev | Alexander Bublik |
| ----------------- | --------------- | ---------------- |
| Opening consensus | 65%             | 35%              |
| Latest consensus  | 63%             | 37%              |
| Court Shark model | 70%             | 30%              |

Source: Court Shark model and pre-match market consensus.View data table

### Model win probability

Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live

The Court Shark model's chance for each player to win this match.

__Model win probability by player__
| Player           | Win probability | Recent form (last 10) |
| ---------------- | --------------- | --------------------- |
| Daniil Medvedev  | 70%             | 8-2                   |
| Alexander Bublik | 30%             | 6-4                   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### How long it could go

Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live

A 56% chance the match lasts 19 to 29 games; 22 is the middle of the range.

__Chance of each total number of games in the match__
| Total games | Chance |
| ----------- | ------ |
| 13          | 0.3%   |
| 14          | 0.7%   |
| 15          | 2.0%   |
| 16          | 3.5%   |
| 17          | 6.2%   |
| 18          | 7.1%   |
| 19          | 8.5%   |
| 20          | 8.1%   |
| 21          | 5.4%   |
| 22          | 8.9%   |
| 23          | 7.1%   |
| 24          | 0.9%   |
| 25          | 3.2%   |
| 26          | 5.0%   |
| 27          | 2.4%   |
| 28          | 3.0%   |
| 29          | 3.3%   |
| 30          | 3.4%   |
| 31          | 4.3%   |
| 32          | 4.5%   |
| 33          | 2.8%   |
| 34          | 2.1%   |
| 35          | 3.2%   |
| 36          | 2.2%   |
| 37          | 0.2%   |
| 38          | 0.7%   |
| 39          | 0.8%   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Return games won: where they stand

Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live

Each dot is one of the ATP top 100 with enough matches in the last 52 weeks. Daniil Medvedev is 6th of 94; Alexander Bublik is 78th of 94.

__Return games won, last 52 weeks, against the ATP top 100__
| Player                             | Return games won | Place      |
| ---------------------------------- | ---------------- | ---------- |
| Daniil Medvedev                    | 28.2%            | 6th of 94  |
| Alexander Bublik                   | 15.6%            | 78th of 94 |
| Field median                       | 18.6%            |            |
| Field best (Daniel Merida Aguilar) | 30.7%            | 1st        |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Two years of form

Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live

Each player's pre-match Elo rating since Oct 29, 2024\. Latest: Daniil Medvedev 2125 (Oct 17, 2026), Alexander Bublik 2023 (Oct 13, 2026).

__Pre-match Elo rating over the last two years__
| Player           | Start of window     | Two-year peak       | Latest              |
| ---------------- | ------------------- | ------------------- | ------------------- |
| Daniil Medvedev  | 2160 (Oct 30, 2024) | 2160 (Oct 30, 2024) | 2125 (Oct 17, 2026) |
| Alexander Bublik | 1860 (Oct 29, 2024) | 2131 (Feb 14, 2026) | 2023 (Oct 13, 2026) |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

[Explore this matchup](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=106421&p2=122330)

Court Shark win probabilities are statistical estimates, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

Our forecast

Court Shark's model

Daniil Medvedev 70% to win

Match shape

Daniil Medvedev in straight sets: 48%

Deciding set: 36%

Total games: median 22, middle half 19 to 29

AI analyst

Picks Daniil Medvedev (agrees with the model)

Its case: Medvedev owns a 6-1 overall head-to-head lead and is 4-0 against Bublik on hard courts, while his recent hard-court record is 8-2 versus 5-5 and his broader hard-court record is 69% versus 58%.

The risk it names: The risk is that Bublik is at home in Almaty and his 15.4% ace rate and 77.5% first-serve-points-won rate suit the fast indoor conditions at 848m, especially with Medvedev carrying 645 minutes over 7 matches in the last 14 days.

Estimates recorded before play, not certainties.

Keep exploring

[Open the full head-to-head](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=106421&p2=122330)[Create a free account to keep it](https://courtshark.ai/register?redirect=%2Fh2h%3Fp1%3D106421%26p2%3D122330)

Match context

Players

Daniil Medvedev  
vs Alexander Bublik

Event

Almaty Open

Surface

Hard

Round

Semifinal

Date

Saturday, October 24

Article snapshot · Not live

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Related on Court Shark

- [How our match model works](https://courtshark.ai/blog/methodology/)
- [Our editorial standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)
- [About the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/)

## Methodology and sources

How we build model estimates and where our information comes from.

Model estimates and observed results

The win probabilities come from the Court Shark match model, trained on completed ATP and WTA matches. A probability says how often a player in this position wins, not that one result will happen. The model's number for a match is recorded before play and never changed afterwards, so it can be checked against the result.

Sources and citations

Results, scores, rankings and serve statistics come from the Court Shark match database. The market consensus is the pre-match price for each player converted to a probability. Figures in this article are a snapshot taken when it was written.

Limitations

Serve and return rates count only matches with full serve statistics, which are sparser for Challenger and lower-level events, and the tour average they are compared with covers every year on record. Head-to-head records count every meeting with a recorded winner, walkovers and retirements included. Charts and tables are a snapshot and do not update after publication.

About the desk

Who works on the Tennis Desk and how an article is put together. [Read about the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/)

Editorial standards

What we publish, what we check and how we decide what is fit to print. [Read our standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)

Corrections

Spotted an error? Write to hello@courtshark.ai and we will correct it and note the change. [Read the corrections policy](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)