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# Tjen vs Kudermetova Prediction: Guangzhou 2026 Round of 32
- URL: https://courtshark.ai/blog/tjen-vs-kudermetova-guangzhou-2026-prediction/
- Published: 2026-10-26T15:33:57.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-26T15:33:57.000Z
- Description: Tjen's higher ranking separates the players most clearly, but Kudermetova's return record makes the Guangzhou matchup less straightforward.
- Author: Court Shark Desk
- Tags: match-preview, Polina Kudermetova, Janice Tjen, Guangzhou 2026, Hard, WTA

In this analysis

1. [Key takeaway](#key-takeaway)
2. [A place in the next round](#s-a-place-in-the-next-round)
3. [Tjen's ranking is the clearest separator](#s-tjen-s-ranking-is-the-clearest-separator)
4. [Kudermetova's return offers a route through](#s-kudermetova-s-return-offers-a-route-through)
5. [The prediction](#s-the-prediction)
6. [Explore this matchup](#explore)
7. [Methodology and sources](#methodology)

Key takeaway

Tjen's higher ranking is the strongest separator, supported by a better hard-court hold record. Kudermetova's stronger return record keeps the matchup competitive.

Janice Tjen faces Polina Kudermetova in Guangzhou's round of 32\. Her higher ranking is the clearest separator, with Court Shark's model giving Tjen a 60% chance to win.

## A place in the next round

The round of 32 at Guangzhou offers [Polina Kudermetova](https://courtshark.ai/players/polina-kudermetova-10221236) and [Janice Tjen](https://courtshark.ai/players/janice-tjen-10222145) a place in the last sixteen on Tuesday. Tjen's higher ranking is the clearest distinction before a match in which recent results offer little support for a strong favorite. The separation is real, but limited.

This hard-court meeting gives Tjen an opportunity to end a two-match losing run, while Kudermetova arrives after a defeat that followed three consecutive wins. Neither enters with an unbroken run of success to defend. For Tjen, the task is to turn her stronger ranking into a result; for Kudermetova, it is to extend the better stretch that preceded her latest loss. They have never met, so there is no direct history to establish whether this particular opponent suits either player.

### Ways to win

Article snapshot, Oct 26, 2026 · Not live

Every way the match can finish. The likeliest single result is Janice Tjen in straight sets (41%).

__Chance of each final set score__
| Result                      | Chance |
| --------------------------- | ------ |
| Polina Kudermetova wins 2-0 | 24%    |
| Polina Kudermetova wins 2-1 | 16%    |
| Janice Tjen wins 2-1        | 19%    |
| Janice Tjen wins 2-0        | 41%    |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

## Tjen's ranking is the clearest separator

Tjen stood at No. 46, while Kudermetova was No. 105\. That is the strongest broad distinction between players whose immediate results do not otherwise point consistently toward the same favorite in this matchup. Ranking favors Tjen. It establishes a stronger overall position, though it does not by itself explain how she wins on this surface.

The service records provide a narrower tennis explanation for that advantage: Tjen held 71% of her service games on hard courts, compared with Kudermetova's 67%. Those figures cover the past year rather than just their latest tournaments. My reading is that Tjen has the more dependable starting point on serve, which supports the ranking-based preference without making it decisive. The distinction matters because holding more consistently can reduce the number of successful return games she needs, but the return records complicate that picture.

## Kudermetova's return offers a route through

Kudermetova broke serve in 34% of her return games on hard courts over the same window, against Tjen's 26%. That reverses the service comparison and gives the underdog a concrete way to challenge the favorite's apparent advantage. The return favors Kudermetova. If she can regularly threaten Tjen's service games, the ranking difference becomes less useful as a guide to this match.

Recent results also resist a simple preference for Tjen: Kudermetova went 5-5 in her latest matches, while Tjen went 4-6\. Their recent hard-court records matched those overall records, so the surface did not produce a separate form advantage for Tjen.

Kudermetova's latest appearance ended in retirement against Elena Rybakina in Ningbo. That leaves a fitness question, but the result alone does not establish its cause or whether it affects this match. Her ability to complete the match without restriction is a concrete condition behind any upset case.

## The prediction

Court Shark's model favors Tjen with a 60% win probability, while the market consensus has her at 61%. The two assessments are close. Both favor the higher-ranked player despite Kudermetova's slightly better recent results, rather than identifying an overwhelming favorite in this first meeting between them.

## Explore this matchup

Compare both players side by side: recent results, surfaces, serve and return.

### Player comparison

Article snapshot, Oct 26, 2026 · Not live

Each measure on the same scale: recent wins, wins on this surface, head-to-head wins and the model's chance.

__Player comparison__
| Measure               | Polina Kudermetova | Janice Tjen |
| --------------------- | ------------------ | ----------- |
| Wins, last 10 matches | 50% (5-5)          | 40% (4-6)   |
| Wins, last 10 on hard | 50% (5-5)          | 40% (4-6)   |
| Model win probability | 40%                | 60%         |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Recent form

Article snapshot, Oct 26, 2026 · Not live

Each player's most recent completed matches, up to 10, oldest on the left.

__Recent results by player, oldest first__
| Player             | Date         | Result | Opponent              | Score          | Event       |
| ------------------ | ------------ | ------ | --------------------- | -------------- | ----------- |
| Polina Kudermetova | Aug 24, 2026 | L      | Linda Fruhvirtova     | 1-6 3-6        | US Open     |
| Polina Kudermetova | Sep 21, 2026 | L      | Kamilla Rakhimova     | 6-7(4) 6-4 5-7 | Seoul       |
| Polina Kudermetova | Sep 30, 2026 | W      | Ye Xin Ma             | 6-7(2) 6-3 6-2 | Beijing     |
| Polina Kudermetova | Oct 2, 2026  | W      | Clara Tauson          | 6-4 4-6 6-4    | Beijing     |
| Polina Kudermetova | Oct 4, 2026  | L      | Mirra Andreeva        | 4-6 1-6        | Beijing     |
| Polina Kudermetova | Oct 10, 2026 | L      | Katie Volynets        | 2-6 1-6        | Wuhan       |
| Polina Kudermetova | Oct 17, 2026 | W      | Mananchaya Sawangkaew | 6-3 6-4        | WTA Ningbo  |
| Polina Kudermetova | Oct 18, 2026 | W      | Anastasia Zakharova   | 6-3 6-3        | WTA Ningbo  |
| Polina Kudermetova | Oct 20, 2026 | W      | Cristina Bucsa        | 7-6(5) 6-2     | WTA Ningbo  |
| Polina Kudermetova | Oct 22, 2026 | L      | Elena Rybakina        | 0-5 RET        | WTA Ningbo  |
| Janice Tjen        | Aug 25, 2026 | L      | Yuliia Starodubtseva  | 4-6 3-6        | Monterrey   |
| Janice Tjen        | Sep 1, 2026  | L      | Mirra Andreeva        | 2-6 2-6        | US Open     |
| Janice Tjen        | Sep 13, 2026 | W      | Darja Vidmanova       | 7-6(6) 6-2     | Guadalajara |
| Janice Tjen        | Sep 16, 2026 | L      | Sloane Stephens       | 6-7(4) 6-7(3)  | Guadalajara |
| Janice Tjen        | Sep 30, 2026 | W      | Anhelina Kalinina     | 2-6 7-5 6-4    | Beijing     |
| Janice Tjen        | Oct 2, 2026  | L      | Diana Shnaider        | 0-6 4-6        | Beijing     |
| Janice Tjen        | Oct 12, 2026 | W      | Aoi Ito               | 6-3 6-1        | Wuhan       |
| Janice Tjen        | Oct 14, 2026 | W      | Daria Snigur          | 7-5 6-3        | Wuhan       |
| Janice Tjen        | Oct 15, 2026 | L      | Ann Li                | 1-6 6-7(1)     | Wuhan       |
| Janice Tjen        | Oct 19, 2026 | L      | Ashlyn Krueger        | 4-6 4-6        | WTA Osaka   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Win rate by surface

Article snapshot, Oct 26, 2026 · Not live

Share of matches won on each surface across each player's last 50 matches with full statistics.

__Win rate by surface__
| Surface | Polina Kudermetova  | Janice Tjen |
| ------- | ------------------- | ----------- |
| Hard    | 50% (11-11)         | 49% (18-19) |
| Clay    | 67% (16-8)          | 33% (2-4)   |
| Grass   | Too few matches (4) | 29% (2-5)   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Serve and return on hard courts

Article snapshot, Oct 26, 2026 · Not live

How often each player held serve and broke serve on hard over their last 50 matches with full statistics, against the tour's all-years average on the surface.

__Hold and break rates on hard__
| Measure             | Polina Kudermetova | Janice Tjen | Tour average, all years |
| ------------------- | ------------------ | ----------- | ----------------------- |
| Service games held  | 64%                | 72%         | 63%                     |
| Return games broken | 33%                | 26%         | 37%                     |
| Matches in sample   | 22                 | 37          |                         |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Model and market on Polina Kudermetova

Article snapshot, Oct 26, 2026 · Not live

Polina Kudermetova's chance as the market consensus priced it from the opening line, next to the Court Shark model.

__Polina Kudermetova's chance to win__
| Reading           | Polina Kudermetova | Janice Tjen |
| ----------------- | ------------------ | ----------- |
| Opening consensus | 39%                | 61%         |
| Latest consensus  | 39%                | 61%         |
| Court Shark model | 40%                | 60%         |

Source: Court Shark model and pre-match market consensus.View data table

### Model win probability

Article snapshot, Oct 26, 2026 · Not live

The Court Shark model's chance for each player to win this match.

__Model win probability by player__
| Player             | Win probability | Recent form (last 10) |
| ------------------ | --------------- | --------------------- |
| Polina Kudermetova | 40%             | 5-5                   |
| Janice Tjen        | 60%             | 4-6                   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### How long it could go

Article snapshot, Oct 26, 2026 · Not live

A 53% chance the match lasts 18 to 27 games; 21 is the middle of the range.

__Chance of each total number of games in the match__
| Total games | Chance |
| ----------- | ------ |
| 13          | 0.8%   |
| 14          | 2.1%   |
| 15          | 4.3%   |
| 16          | 6.5%   |
| 17          | 8.6%   |
| 18          | 8.7%   |
| 19          | 8.3%   |
| 20          | 7.4%   |
| 21          | 5.3%   |
| 22          | 6.5%   |
| 23          | 4.2%   |
| 24          | 1.8%   |
| 25          | 3.5%   |
| 26          | 3.9%   |
| 27          | 3.5%   |
| 28          | 3.8%   |
| 29          | 4.0%   |
| 30          | 3.8%   |
| 31          | 3.6%   |
| 32          | 3.1%   |
| 33          | 2.0%   |
| 34          | 1.5%   |
| 35          | 1.5%   |
| 36          | 0.7%   |
| 38          | 0.3%   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Service games held: where they stand

Article snapshot, Oct 26, 2026 · Not live

Each dot is one of the WTA top 100 with enough matches in the last 52 weeks. Polina Kudermetova ranks ahead of 1 of 64; Janice Tjen is 31st of 64.

__Service games held, last 52 weeks, against the WTA top 100__
| Player                      | Service games held | Place            |
| --------------------------- | ------------------ | ---------------- |
| Polina Kudermetova          | 58.6%              | Ahead of 1 of 64 |
| Janice Tjen                 | 69.9%              | 31st of 64       |
| Field median                | 69.8%              |                  |
| Field best (Elena Rybakina) | 82.7%              | 1st              |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Two years of form

Article snapshot, Oct 26, 2026 · Not live

Each player's pre-match Elo rating since Dec 28, 2024\. Latest: Janice Tjen 1701 (Oct 15, 2026), Polina Kudermetova 1665 (Oct 10, 2026).

__Pre-match Elo rating over the last two years__
| Player             | Start of window     | Two-year peak       | Latest              |
| ------------------ | ------------------- | ------------------- | ------------------- |
| Polina Kudermetova | 1522 (Dec 28, 2024) | 1705 (Jun 10, 2026) | 1665 (Oct 10, 2026) |
| Janice Tjen        | 1500 (Feb 26, 2025) | 1815 (Jan 7, 2026)  | 1701 (Oct 15, 2026) |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

[Explore this matchup](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=10221236&p2=10222145)

Court Shark win probabilities are statistical estimates, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

Our forecast

Court Shark's model

Janice Tjen 60% to win

Match shape

Janice Tjen in straight sets: 41%

Deciding set: 35%

Total games: median 21, middle half 18 to 27

AI analyst

Picks Janice Tjen (agrees with the model)

Its case: Janice Tjen has the stronger hard-court body of work, winning 73% of 100 matches versus Polina Kudermetova’s 50% across 68, and her 74.8% hold rate markedly exceeds Kudermetova’s 63.2%.

The risk it names: The risk is Tjen’s recent 4-6 hard-court run and two straight losses, while Kudermetova won three matches in Ningbo before retiring in her latest outing.

Estimates recorded before play, not certainties.

Keep exploring

[Open the full head-to-head](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=10221236&p2=10222145)[Create a free account to keep it](https://courtshark.ai/register?redirect=%2Fh2h%3Fp1%3D10221236%26p2%3D10222145)

Match context

Players

Polina Kudermetova  
vs Janice Tjen

Event

Guangzhou

Surface

Hard

Round

Round of 32

Date

Tuesday, October 27

Article snapshot · Not live

Continue your research

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Related on Court Shark

- [How our match model works](https://courtshark.ai/blog/methodology/)
- [Our editorial standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)
- [About the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/)

## Methodology and sources

How we build model estimates and where our information comes from.

Model estimates and observed results

The win probabilities come from the Court Shark match model, trained on completed ATP and WTA matches. A probability says how often a player in this position wins, not that one result will happen. The model's number for a match is recorded before play and never changed afterwards, so it can be checked against the result.

Sources and citations

Results, scores, rankings and serve statistics come from the Court Shark match database. The market consensus is the pre-match price for each player converted to a probability. Figures in this article are a snapshot taken when it was written.

Limitations

Serve and return rates count only matches with full serve statistics, which are sparser for Challenger and lower-level events, and the tour average they are compared with covers every year on record. Head-to-head records count every meeting with a recorded winner, walkovers and retirements included. Charts and tables are a snapshot and do not update after publication.

About the desk

Who works on the Tennis Desk and how an article is put together. [Read about the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/)

Editorial standards

What we publish, what we check and how we decide what is fit to print. [Read our standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)

Corrections

Spotted an error? Write to hello@courtshark.ai and we will correct it and note the change. [Read the corrections policy](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)