> ## Content Index
> Fetch the complete content index at: https://courtshark.ai/blog/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further.

# Tsitsipas vs Duckworth: Almaty Open probability gap
- URL: https://courtshark.ai/blog/tsitsipas-duckworth-almaty-open-probability-gap/
- Published: 2026-10-22T23:01:41.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-22T23:01:40.000Z
- Description: Tsitsipas's recent results support clear favoritism in Almaty, but the return numbers offer a reason to be less confident than the market.
- Author: Court Shark Desk
- Tags: match-preview, Stefanos Tsitsipas, James Duckworth, Almaty Open 2026, Hard

In this analysis

1. [Key takeaway](#key-takeaway)
2. [A semifinal place tests Tsitsipas's recent recovery](#s-a-semifinal-place-tests-tsitsipas-s-recent-recovery)
3. [The market shows greater confidence in the same favorite](#s-the-market-shows-greater-confidence-in-the-same-favorite)
4. [Watch whether the return gap becomes decisive](#s-watch-whether-the-return-gap-becomes-decisive)
5. [Explore this matchup](#explore)
6. [Methodology and sources](#methodology)

Key takeaway

Tsitsipas's form and stronger service record justify favoritism. The smaller gap on return gives Duckworth a plausible route if he can keep holding serve.

Tsitsipas is the clear favorite, but the degree of confidence is debatable. Court Shark gives him a 71% chance against Duckworth in the Almaty Open quarterfinal: recent results support favoritism, while a modest return edge supports more caution than the market shows.

## A semifinal place tests Tsitsipas's recent recovery

[Stefanos Tsitsipas](https://courtshark.ai/players/stefanos-tsitsipas-126774) has the stronger case, but [James Duckworth](https://courtshark.ai/players/james-duckworth-105902) has improved his results this week. Their Almaty Open quarterfinal on Friday, October 23 offers a semifinal place on hard courts. Both arrive on a two-match winning run, so Duckworth's weaker recent record needs to be read alongside his progress through this draw.

The rankings favor Tsitsipas. He enters at No. 39, while Duckworth is No. 73, a gap consistent with the Greek being the favorite rather than an evenly matched opponent. Yet Tsitsipas's current standing also reflects how far he sits from his career high. This is a chance to extend a productive run, not evidence that his earlier level has fully returned.

Their routes here offer useful context. Tsitsipas needed a deciding set against Aleksandar Kovacevic before beating Mikhail Kukushkin comfortably, while Duckworth defeated Miomir Kecmanovic and then Luciano Darderi in straight sets. Duckworth therefore brings more than an abstract upset chance. He has already put together consecutive wins at this event after a difficult stretch elsewhere.

## The market shows greater confidence in the same favorite

The market consensus moved from 72% to 77% for Tsitsipas, leaving it more confident in the favorite than Court Shark's forecast. The direction is clear. Those prices establish a change in expectations, but they cannot identify its cause, so the tennis evidence has to be assessed separately from the move.

Recent hard-court results make a strong case for Tsitsipas: his record is 8-2, against Duckworth's 4-6 over their respective latest stretches on the surface. That supports a clear favorite. Tsitsipas also beat Taylor Fritz in Shanghai before losing to Daniil Medvedev, giving his run a notable win beyond the opponents he has faced in Almaty. Those results support confidence without establishing that every part of his game is equally convincing.

The head-to-head adds less. Tsitsipas won their only meeting in Washington in 2018, but such an old encounter offers limited guidance about their present matchup. His broader hard-court winning rate is also higher than Duckworth's in the available sample. My reading is that the evidence for choosing Tsitsipas is stronger than the evidence for dismissing Duckworth's chances, especially when the return numbers offer a narrower separation.

### Model and market on Stefanos Tsitsipas

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Stefanos Tsitsipas's chance as the market consensus priced it from the opening line, next to the Court Shark model.

__Stefanos Tsitsipas's chance to win__
| Reading           | Stefanos Tsitsipas | James Duckworth |
| ----------------- | ------------------ | --------------- |
| Opening consensus | 72%                | 28%             |
| Latest consensus  | 77%                | 23%             |
| Court Shark model | 71%                | 29%             |

Source: Court Shark model and pre-match market consensus.View data table

## Watch whether the return gap becomes decisive

Tsitsipas's serve is the clearest practical advantage to watch. In the hard-court sample, he held 86% of service games against Duckworth's 82%, suggesting a better foundation for protecting his own games. That matters early. If Tsitsipas holds comfortably, Duckworth will have fewer openings to turn his recent improvement into scoreboard pressure, and his own service games become more demanding.

The return comparison is closer: Tsitsipas broke in 17% of return games, against Duckworth's 15%. This is the strongest reason for restraint. My interpretation is that Duckworth's route depends on keeping his service games secure enough that Tsitsipas's superior overall results do not become a steady stream of breaks. Repeated early pressure on Duckworth's serve would weaken that case; comfortable holds would strengthen it.

Workload is another detail to monitor rather than assume away. Tsitsipas has played 6 matches in the past fortnight and Duckworth 4, although both enter without a long layoff. That difference does not establish fatigue. If the match extends, movement and the quality of service games would offer more useful evidence than the schedule alone about whether either player's recent activity is affecting him.

## Explore this matchup

Compare both players side by side: recent results, surfaces, serve and return.

### Player comparison

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Each measure on the same scale: recent wins, wins on this surface, head-to-head wins and the model's chance.

__Player comparison__
| Measure               | Stefanos Tsitsipas | James Duckworth |
| --------------------- | ------------------ | --------------- |
| Wins, last 10 matches | 80% (8-2)          | 40% (4-6)       |
| Wins, last 10 on hard | 80% (8-2)          | 40% (4-6)       |
| Head-to-head wins     | 100% (1-0)         | 0% (0-1)        |
| Model win probability | 71%                | 29%             |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Recent form

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Each player's most recent completed matches, up to 10, oldest on the left.

__Recent results by player, oldest first__
| Player             | Date         | Result | Opponent                | Score              | Event                        |
| ------------------ | ------------ | ------ | ----------------------- | ------------------ | ---------------------------- |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Sep 28, 2026 | W      | Yoshihito Nishioka      | 7-5 6-2            | Tokyo                        |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Sep 29, 2026 | W      | Rinky Hijikata          | 6-4 6-3            | Tokyo                        |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 1, 2026  | W      | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 4-6 6-3 6-4        | Tokyo                        |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 2, 2026  | L      | Valentin Vacherot       | 6-4 6-7(5) 4-6     | Tokyo                        |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 8, 2026  | W      | Kimmer Coppejans        | 6-3 7-5            | Shanghai Masters             |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 10, 2026 | W      | Luciano Darderi         | 6-3 6-4            | Shanghai Masters             |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 12, 2026 | W      | Taylor Fritz            | 3-6 7-5 6-3        | Shanghai Masters             |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 14, 2026 | L      | Daniil Medvedev         | 4-6 5-7            | Shanghai Masters             |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 20, 2026 | W      | Aleksandar Kovacevic    | 7-6(9) 3-6 6-3     | ATP Almaty                   |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 21, 2026 | W      | Mikhail Kukushkin       | 6-1 6-2            | ATP Almaty                   |
| James Duckworth    | Aug 28, 2026 | W      | Fabian Marozsan         | 6-7(4) 6-2 6-4     | Winston-Salem                |
| James Duckworth    | Aug 28, 2026 | L      | Arthur Fery             | 4-6 2-1 RET        | Winston-Salem                |
| James Duckworth    | Aug 31, 2026 | W      | Matteo Arnaldi          | 5-7 6-3 6-2 7-6(8) | US Open                      |
| James Duckworth    | Sep 2, 2026  | L      | Yibing Wu               | 5-7 3-6 1-6        | US Open                      |
| James Duckworth    | Sep 22, 2026 | L      | Kamil Majchrzak         | 6-2 3-6 3-6        | Davis Cup WG1 R1: AUS vs POL |
| James Duckworth    | Sep 24, 2026 | L      | Lorenzo Sonego          | 4-6 4-6            | Chengdu                      |
| James Duckworth    | Oct 8, 2026  | L      | Hubert Hurkacz          | 3-6 6-7(4)         | Shanghai Masters             |
| James Duckworth    | Oct 14, 2026 | L      | Liam Draxl              | 4-6 4-6            | Jinan Challenger             |
| James Duckworth    | Oct 19, 2026 | W      | Miomir Kecmanovic       | 6-4 6-3            | ATP Almaty                   |
| James Duckworth    | Oct 21, 2026 | W      | Luciano Darderi         | 7-5 7-6(7)         | ATP Almaty                   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Head-to-head by surface

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Stefanos Tsitsipas and James Duckworth have met once. Stefanos Tsitsipas leads 1-0.

__Head-to-head record, Stefanos Tsitsipas first__
| Surface      | Stefanos Tsitsipas | James Duckworth |
| ------------ | ------------------ | --------------- |
| All surfaces | 1                  | 0               |
| Hard         | 1                  | 0               |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Win rate by surface

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Share of matches won on each surface across each player's last 50 matches with full statistics.

__Win rate by surface__
| Surface | Stefanos Tsitsipas  | James Duckworth |
| ------- | ------------------- | --------------- |
| Hard    | 61% (20-13)         | 45% (14-17)     |
| Clay    | 64% (9-5)           | 77% (10-3)      |
| Grass   | Too few matches (3) | 33% (2-4)       |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Serve and return on hard courts

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

How often each player held serve and broke serve on hard over their last 50 matches with full statistics, against the tour's all-years average on the surface.

__Hold and break rates on hard__
| Measure             | Stefanos Tsitsipas | James Duckworth | Tour average, all years |
| ------------------- | ------------------ | --------------- | ----------------------- |
| Service games held  | 86%                | 82%             | 77%                     |
| Return games broken | 17%                | 15%             | 23%                     |
| Matches in sample   | 33                 | 31              |                         |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Model win probability

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

The Court Shark model's chance for each player to win this match.

__Model win probability by player__
| Player             | Win probability | Recent form (last 10) |
| ------------------ | --------------- | --------------------- |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 71%             | 8-2                   |
| James Duckworth    | 29%             | 4-6                   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Ways to win

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Every way the match can finish. The likeliest single result is Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets (48%).

__Chance of each final set score__
| Result                      | Chance |
| --------------------------- | ------ |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 2-0 | 48%    |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 2-1 | 23%    |
| James Duckworth wins 2-1    | 14%    |
| James Duckworth wins 2-0    | 15%    |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### How long it could go

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

A 58% chance the match lasts 20 to 31 games; 23 is the middle of the range.

__Chance of each total number of games in the match__
| Total games | Chance |
| ----------- | ------ |
| 14          | 0.2%   |
| 15          | 0.9%   |
| 16          | 1.6%   |
| 17          | 3.8%   |
| 18          | 4.8%   |
| 19          | 7.5%   |
| 20          | 7.5%   |
| 21          | 4.9%   |
| 22          | 10.9%  |
| 23          | 10.1%  |
| 24          | 0.5%   |
| 25          | 3.5%   |
| 26          | 8.5%   |
| 27          | 1.3%   |
| 28          | 1.9%   |
| 29          | 2.1%   |
| 30          | 2.4%   |
| 31          | 3.9%   |
| 32          | 4.8%   |
| 33          | 3.1%   |
| 34          | 2.3%   |
| 35          | 5.0%   |
| 36          | 4.3%   |
| 37          | 0.2%   |
| 38          | 1.3%   |
| 39          | 2.7%   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Service games held: where they stand

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Each dot is one of the ATP top 100 with enough matches in the last 52 weeks. Stefanos Tsitsipas is 8th of 94; James Duckworth is 44th of 94.

__Service games held, last 52 weeks, against the ATP top 100__
| Player                     | Service games held | Place      |
| -------------------------- | ------------------ | ---------- |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas         | 88.0%              | 8th of 94  |
| James Duckworth            | 81.9%              | 44th of 94 |
| Field median               | 81.8%              |            |
| Field best (Jannik Sinner) | 94.5%              | 1st        |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Two years of form

Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live

Each player's pre-match Elo rating since Oct 23, 2024\. Latest: Stefanos Tsitsipas 2030 (Oct 14, 2026), James Duckworth 1817 (Oct 19, 2026).

__Pre-match Elo rating over the last two years__
| Player             | Start of window     | Two-year peak       | Latest              |
| ------------------ | ------------------- | ------------------- | ------------------- |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 2041 (Oct 23, 2024) | 2087 (Mar 11, 2025) | 2030 (Oct 14, 2026) |
| James Duckworth    | 1830 (Oct 23, 2024) | 1847 (Sep 2, 2026)  | 1817 (Oct 19, 2026) |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

[Explore this matchup](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=105902&p2=126774)

Court Shark win probabilities are statistical estimates, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

Our forecast

Court Shark's model

Stefanos Tsitsipas 71% to win

Match shape

Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets: 48%

Deciding set: 37%

Total games: median 23, middle half 20 to 31

AI analyst

Picks Stefanos Tsitsipas (agrees with the model)

Its case: Tsitsipas has won 8 of his last 10 hard-court matches versus Duckworth's 4 of 10, holds more often on hard courts (87.3% to 84.5%), and his recent wins include Fritz, Darderi and a tight 2018 hard-court head-to-head win over Duckworth.

The risk it names: Duckworth's two straight Almaty wins, including a 7-5, 7-6(7) defeat of Darderi, and the fast indoor conditions at 848m are the main danger: his serve can keep this close.

Estimates recorded before play, not certainties.

Keep exploring

[Follow this match on Court Shark](https://courtshark.ai/matches?file=bdl%5F4725986)[Create a free account to keep it](https://courtshark.ai/register?redirect=%2Fmatches%3Ffile%3Dbdl%5F4725986)

Match context

Players

Stefanos Tsitsipas  
vs James Duckworth

Event

Almaty Open

Surface

Hard

Round

Quarterfinal

Date

Friday, October 23

Article snapshot · Not live

Continue your research

Compare form, explore surfaces and follow live match context.

[Explore Premium](https://courtshark.ai/register?redirect=/start-premium)[See what's included](https://courtshark.ai/premium)
- Advanced filters and splits
- Save your research
- Live context and updates

Related on Court Shark

- [How our match model works](https://courtshark.ai/blog/methodology/)
- [Open the full head-to-head](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=105902&p2=126774)
- [Our editorial standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)
- [About the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/)

## Methodology and sources

How we build model estimates and where our information comes from.

Model estimates and observed results

The win probabilities come from the Court Shark match model, trained on completed ATP and WTA matches. A probability says how often a player in this position wins, not that one result will happen. The model's number for a match is recorded before play and never changed afterwards, so it can be checked against the result.

Sources and citations

Results, scores, rankings and serve statistics come from the Court Shark match database. The market consensus is the pre-match price for each player converted to a probability. Figures in this article are a snapshot taken when it was written.

Limitations

Serve and return rates count only matches with full serve statistics, which are sparser for Challenger and lower-level events, and the tour average they are compared with covers every year on record. Head-to-head records count every meeting with a recorded winner, walkovers and retirements included. Charts and tables are a snapshot and do not update after publication.

About the desk

Who works on the Tennis Desk and how an article is put together. [Read about the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/)

Editorial standards

What we publish, what we check and how we decide what is fit to print. [Read our standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)

Corrections

Spotted an error? Write to hello@courtshark.ai and we will correct it and note the change. [Read the corrections policy](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)