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# Tsitsipas vs Kukushkin Prediction: Almaty Open 2026 Round of 16
- URL: https://courtshark.ai/blog/tsitsipas-vs-kukushkin-almaty-open-2026-prediction/
- Published: 2026-10-21T01:30:21.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-21T01:30:21.000Z
- Description: Tsitsipas's unbeaten record against Kukushkin supports the Almaty pick, but recent form and serving provide the more current reasons to favor him.
- Author: Court Shark Desk
- Tags: match-preview, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Mikhail Kukushkin, Almaty Open 2026, Hard, ATP, Head-to-head

In this analysis

1. [Key takeaway](#key-takeaway)
2. [An old result, a new quarterfinal opportunity](#s-an-old-result-a-new-quarterfinal-opportunity)
3. [Five wins matter, but the meetings were not all easy](#s-five-wins-matter-but-the-meetings-were-not-all-easy)
4. [Kukushkin's return offers a route into the match](#s-kukushkin-s-return-offers-a-route-into-the-match)
5. [The prediction](#s-the-prediction)
6. [Explore this matchup](#explore)
7. [Methodology and sources](#methodology)

Key takeaway

Tsitsipas's stronger recent results and service record make the current case for the pick. Kukushkin's higher break rate on hard courts offers his clearest route to a closer match.

Stefanos Tsitsipas faces Mikhail Kukushkin in the Almaty Open round of 16 with an unbeaten record against him. That history and his stronger recent results support the favorite: Court Shark's model gives Tsitsipas a 91% chance.

## An old result, a new quarterfinal opportunity

In October 2022, [Stefanos Tsitsipas](https://courtshark.ai/players/stefanos-tsitsipas-126774) won his most recent meeting with [Mikhail Kukushkin](https://courtshark.ai/players/mikhail-kukushkin-105062) at Astana. That result offers a historical comparison as they return to hard courts in Kazakhstan, although it is too old to establish their current level. Much has changed since.

Wednesday's Almaty Open round of 16 offers a quarterfinal place, with Tsitsipas trying to extend his recent results and Kukushkin playing in his home country. Both won their opening matches here. For Kukushkin, this is a chance to turn that opening win into a deeper run against an opponent he has never beaten.

Tsitsipas went 8-2 in his latest matches, while Kukushkin went 4-6\. Those records give the favorite a current argument alongside the historical one. Tsitsipas's recent wins included victories over Taylor Fritz in Shanghai and Rinky Hijikata in Tokyo, before his successful start in Almaty.

## Five wins matter, but the meetings were not all easy

Tsitsipas led the head-to-head 5-0, including 3-0 on hard courts. His advantage was therefore not confined to clay or to a surface different from the one they will play on in Almaty. The individual results add texture.

Their first meetings in 2018 both required deciding sets, in Dubai and Rome, while the Marseille meeting in 2019 included a tiebreak. Kukushkin had therefore taken sets from Tsitsipas and pushed him beyond routine straight-set wins, even without recording a victory. The later meetings in Marseille, Monte Carlo and Astana all ended in straight-set wins for Tsitsipas.

The present rankings provide a separate reason to favor Tsitsipas, who is No. 43 against Kukushkin's No. 304\. My reading is that the unbeaten record strengthens a case already supported by their current standing, rather than providing the main reason for the pick. The early deciding sets also show why an unbeaten record should not be confused with uniformly comfortable results.

### Head-to-head by surface

Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live

Stefanos Tsitsipas and Mikhail Kukushkin have met 5 times. Stefanos Tsitsipas leads 5-0.

__Head-to-head record, Stefanos Tsitsipas first__
| Surface      | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Mikhail Kukushkin |
| ------------ | ------------------ | ----------------- |
| All surfaces | 5                  | 0                 |
| Hard         | 3                  | 0                 |
| Clay         | 2                  | 0                 |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

## Kukushkin's return offers a route into the match

Tsitsipas held 87% of his service games on hard courts over the past year, compared with Kukushkin's 82%. That suggests a clear task for the underdog: disrupt the stronger service record rather than wait for the old results to reverse themselves. Holding serve remains his starting point.

The return figures complicate the favorite's case. Kukushkin broke in 27% of return games over that window, while Tsitsipas broke in 17%. Kukushkin's route to a closer match is to reproduce that return pressure against Tsitsipas, forcing the favorite to defend service games more often.

Workload is another possible complication: Tsitsipas played five matches in the last 14 days and needed a deciding set against Aleksandar Kovacevic in his Almaty opener. Kukushkin had a lighter recent schedule and an extra day since his opening win. A prolonged match could make that recovery difference more relevant, particularly if Kukushkin's return record translates into repeated pressure on Tsitsipas's serve.

## The prediction

Court Shark's model gives Tsitsipas a 91% win probability, while the market consensus gives him 93%. Both favor the same player strongly. The market is slightly more emphatic, but the difference does not change the direction of the pick or suggest a closely balanced contest.

Court Shark's AI analyst, which reads the matchup without the market, also picks Tsitsipas and agrees with the model. His stronger recent results and service record provide reasons beyond the unbeaten head-to-head to support that choice. Court Shark's scoreline forecast gives him a 75% chance of winning in straight sets, with a median total of 20 games.

The middle half of forecast outcomes runs from 17 to 24 games, a range rather than a prediction of an exact total. A relatively short match is the likeliest shape, with a straight-set Tsitsipas victory the most likely individual result in the forecast. Kukushkin's ability to threaten Tsitsipas's service games is the specific test of that forecast.

### Ways to win

Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live

Every way the match can finish. The likeliest single result is Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets (75%).

__Chance of each final set score__
| Result                      | Chance |
| --------------------------- | ------ |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 2-0 | 75%    |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 2-1 | 16%    |
| Mikhail Kukushkin wins 2-1  | 5%     |
| Mikhail Kukushkin wins 2-0  | 4%     |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

## Explore this matchup

Compare both players side by side: recent results, surfaces, serve and return.

### Player comparison

Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live

Each measure on the same scale: recent wins, wins on this surface, head-to-head wins and the model's chance.

__Player comparison__
| Measure               | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Mikhail Kukushkin |
| --------------------- | ------------------ | ----------------- |
| Wins, last 10 matches | 80% (8-2)          | 40% (4-6)         |
| Wins, last 10 on hard | 70% (7-3)          | 50% (5-5)         |
| Head-to-head wins     | 100% (5-0)         | 0% (0-5)          |
| Model win probability | 91%                | 9%                |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Recent form

Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live

Each player's most recent completed matches, up to 10, oldest on the left.

__Recent results by player, oldest first__
| Player             | Date         | Result | Opponent                | Score                | Event                        |
| ------------------ | ------------ | ------ | ----------------------- | -------------------- | ---------------------------- |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Sep 22, 2026 | W      | Alex Molcan             | 2-6 6-3 6-4          | Davis Cup WG1 R1: SVK vs GRE |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Sep 28, 2026 | W      | Yoshihito Nishioka      | 7-5 6-2              | Tokyo                        |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Sep 29, 2026 | W      | Rinky Hijikata          | 6-4 6-3              | Tokyo                        |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 1, 2026  | W      | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 4-6 6-3 6-4          | Tokyo                        |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 2, 2026  | L      | Valentin Vacherot       | 6-4 6-7(5) 4-6       | Tokyo                        |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 8, 2026  | W      | Kimmer Coppejans        | 6-3 7-5              | Shanghai Masters             |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 10, 2026 | W      | Luciano Darderi         | 6-3 6-4              | Shanghai Masters             |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 12, 2026 | W      | Taylor Fritz            | 3-6 7-5 6-3          | Shanghai Masters             |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 14, 2026 | L      | Daniil Medvedev         | 4-6 5-7              | Shanghai Masters             |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 20, 2026 | W      | Aleksandar Kovacevic    | 7-6(9) 3-6 6-3       | ATP Almaty                   |
| Mikhail Kukushkin  | Apr 15, 2026 | W      | Jie Cui                 | 4-6 6-4 6-1          | Wuning 2 CH                  |
| Mikhail Kukushkin  | Apr 16, 2026 | L      | Blake Ellis             | 3-6 6-7(5)           | Wuning 2 CH                  |
| Mikhail Kukushkin  | Apr 22, 2026 | W      | Pavel Kotov             | 1-6 6-2 6-3          | Gwangju CH                   |
| Mikhail Kukushkin  | Apr 23, 2026 | L      | Leandro Riedi           | 3-6 2-6              | Gwangju CH                   |
| Mikhail Kukushkin  | Apr 29, 2026 | L      | Coleman Wong            | 3-6 3-6              | Jiujiang CH                  |
| Mikhail Kukushkin  | May 6, 2026  | W      | Tianhui Zhang           | 7-6(4) 6-3           | Wuxi CH                      |
| Mikhail Kukushkin  | May 7, 2026  | L      | Mark Lajal              | 6-7(8) 7-6(2) 6-7(2) | Wuxi CH                      |
| Mikhail Kukushkin  | Jun 13, 2026 | L      | Mattia Bellucci         | 4-6 3-6              | Halle                        |
| Mikhail Kukushkin  | Jun 20, 2026 | L      | Damir Dzumhur           | 2-6 1-6              | Mallorca                     |
| Mikhail Kukushkin  | Oct 19, 2026 | W      | Stefanos Sakellaridis   | 7-6(4) 7-6(3)        | ATP Almaty                   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Win rate by surface

Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live

Share of matches won on each surface across each player's last 50 matches with full statistics.

__Win rate by surface__
| Surface | Stefanos Tsitsipas  | Mikhail Kukushkin   |
| ------- | ------------------- | ------------------- |
| Hard    | 58% (19-14)         | 60% (27-18)         |
| Clay    | 64% (9-5)           | Too few matches (3) |
| Grass   | Too few matches (3) | Too few matches (2) |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Serve and return on hard courts

Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live

How often each player held serve and broke serve on hard over their last 50 matches with full statistics, against the tour's all-years average on the surface.

__Hold and break rates on hard__
| Measure             | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Mikhail Kukushkin | Tour average, all years |
| ------------------- | ------------------ | ----------------- | ----------------------- |
| Service games held  | 87%                | 82%               | 77%                     |
| Return games broken | 17%                | 26%               | 23%                     |
| Matches in sample   | 33                 | 45                |                         |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Model and market on Stefanos Tsitsipas

Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live

Stefanos Tsitsipas's chance as the market consensus priced it from the opening line, next to the Court Shark model.

__Stefanos Tsitsipas's chance to win__
| Reading           | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Mikhail Kukushkin |
| ----------------- | ------------------ | ----------------- |
| Opening consensus | 90%                | 10%               |
| Latest consensus  | 93%                | 7%                |
| Court Shark model | 91%                | 9%                |

Source: Court Shark model and pre-match market consensus.View data table

### Model win probability

Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live

The Court Shark model's chance for each player to win this match.

__Model win probability by player__
| Player             | Win probability | Recent form (last 10) |
| ------------------ | --------------- | --------------------- |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 91%             | 8-2                   |
| Mikhail Kukushkin  | 9%              | 4-6                   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### How long it could go

Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live

A 59% chance the match lasts 17 to 24 games; 20 is the middle of the range.

__Chance of each total number of games in the match__
| Total games | Chance |
| ----------- | ------ |
| 13          | 1.0%   |
| 14          | 2.5%   |
| 15          | 5.3%   |
| 16          | 7.5%   |
| 17          | 10.5%  |
| 18          | 10.3%  |
| 19          | 9.7%   |
| 20          | 8.7%   |
| 21          | 5.7%   |
| 22          | 7.8%   |
| 23          | 5.5%   |
| 24          | 0.7%   |
| 25          | 2.4%   |
| 26          | 3.4%   |
| 27          | 1.6%   |
| 28          | 1.9%   |
| 29          | 2.0%   |
| 30          | 2.1%   |
| 31          | 2.5%   |
| 32          | 2.4%   |
| 33          | 1.5%   |
| 34          | 1.1%   |
| 35          | 1.7%   |
| 36          | 1.1%   |
| 38          | 0.4%   |
| 39          | 0.4%   |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

### Two years of form

Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live

Each player's pre-match Elo rating since Oct 23, 2024\. Latest: Stefanos Tsitsipas 2030 (Oct 14, 2026), Mikhail Kukushkin 1694 (Jun 20, 2026).

__Pre-match Elo rating over the last two years__
| Player             | Start of window     | Two-year peak       | Latest              |
| ------------------ | ------------------- | ------------------- | ------------------- |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 2041 (Oct 23, 2024) | 2087 (Mar 11, 2025) | 2030 (Oct 14, 2026) |
| Mikhail Kukushkin  | 1734 (Oct 23, 2024) | 1755 (Oct 25, 2024) | 1694 (Jun 20, 2026) |

Source: Court Shark model and match data.View data table

[Explore this matchup](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=105062&p2=126774)

Court Shark win probabilities are statistical estimates, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.

Our forecast

Court Shark's model

Stefanos Tsitsipas 91% to win

Match shape

Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets: 75%

Deciding set: 21%

Total games: median 20, middle half 17 to 24

AI analyst

Picks Stefanos Tsitsipas (agrees with the model)

Estimates recorded before play, not certainties.

Keep exploring

[Open the full head-to-head](https://courtshark.ai/h2h?p1=105062&p2=126774)[Create a free account to keep it](https://courtshark.ai/register?redirect=%2Fh2h%3Fp1%3D105062%26p2%3D126774)

Match context

Players

Stefanos Tsitsipas  
vs Mikhail Kukushkin

Event

Almaty Open

Surface

Hard

Round

Round of 16

Date

Wednesday, October 21

Article snapshot · Not live

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Related on Court Shark

- [How our match model works](https://courtshark.ai/blog/methodology/)
- [Our editorial standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)
- [About the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/)

## Methodology and sources

How we build model estimates and where our information comes from.

Model estimates and observed results

The win probabilities come from the Court Shark match model, trained on completed ATP and WTA matches. A probability says how often a player in this position wins, not that one result will happen. The model's number for a match is recorded before play and never changed afterwards, so it can be checked against the result.

Sources and citations

Results, scores, rankings and serve statistics come from the Court Shark match database. The market consensus is the pre-match price for each player converted to a probability. Figures in this article are a snapshot taken when it was written.

Limitations

Serve and return rates count only matches with full serve statistics, which are sparser for Challenger and lower-level events, and the tour average they are compared with covers every year on record. Head-to-head records count every meeting with a recorded winner, walkovers and retirements included. Charts and tables are a snapshot and do not update after publication.

About the desk

Who works on the Tennis Desk and how an article is put together. [Read about the desk](https://courtshark.ai/blog/about-the-desk/)

Editorial standards

What we publish, what we check and how we decide what is fit to print. [Read our standards](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)

Corrections

Spotted an error? Write to hello@courtshark.ai and we will correct it and note the change. [Read the corrections policy](https://courtshark.ai/blog/editorial-standards/)