China Open Draw Puts Zverev Near Djokovic
Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic could meet in the China Open quarterfinals after a reshaped draw.
Sinner withdrawal changes the top half
Jannik Sinner has withdrawn from the China Open with a knee injury. That leaves Alexander Zverev as the draw's leading player, and he will begin against Cameron Norrie. The opening match has a clear history behind it.
Zverev has beaten Norrie 8-0 in their series, with two of those victories coming in 2026. He then could play Shang Juncheng or Sebastian Baez. A quarterfinal against Djokovic is the projected next major hurdle, so Zverev's route demands sharp starts from the opening round.
Djokovic returns with work to do
Novak Djokovic returns to Beijing for the first time since 2015. He opens against Nuno Borges, ranked No. 49, with Juan Manuel Cerundolo or Bu Yunchaokete waiting in the next round. It is a testing path immediately.
Djokovic is ranked No. 5 and has gone 6-4 across his last ten completed matches. His latest top-level victory came against Felix Auger Aliassime at Wimbledon. Since then, Sinner, Tiago Agustin Tirante, and Mariano Navone have all beaten him, leaving little room for an early slip in Beijing.
A demanding semifinal projection
If the seeds progress as expected, Zverev and Djokovic would play for the 15th time. Djokovic leads their series 9-5, and the winner would face another hard assignment before the final. Medvedev or Mensik is projected to emerge from the other quarterfinal.
Daniil Medvedev is ranked No. 8 and owns a 6-4 mark in his last ten completed matches. He begins against a qualifier. Mensik starts against Alexander Bublik, whose opener creates a sterner challenge, while both players remain possible semifinal opponents for the Zverev-Djokovic winner.
The bottom half has its own pressure
Felix Auger-Aliassime, the second seed, meets Karen Khachanov in a difficult opener. Khachanov leads their head-to-head 3-2 after taking their two most recent matches. Learner Tien, the 2025 runner-up, is the projected quarterfinal opponent.
Tien faces Hubert Hurkacz first. Flavio Cobolli opens against Roman Safiullin and could then meet Andrey Rublev. Alex de Minaur plays Mariano Navone, with Ignacio Buse or Quentin Halys a possible round-of-sixteen opponent, so the bottom half offers few straightforward opening routes.
Court Shark win probabilities are statistical estimates, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.
Methodology and sources
How we build model estimates and where our information comes from.
Sources and citations
Rankings and recent results for the players named come from the Court Shark match database. The story is public tennis news, written up by the desk in its own words.
Limitations
Player figures are a snapshot taken when the story was written and do not update after publication.
About the desk
Who writes the Journal and how an article is put together. Read about the desk
Editorial standards
What we publish, what we check and how we decide what is fit to print. Read our standards
Corrections
Spotted an error? Write to hello@courtshark.ai and we will correct it and note the change. Read the corrections policy