Tsitsipas vs Duckworth: Almaty Open probability gap
Tsitsipas's recent results support clear favoritism in Almaty, but the return numbers offer a reason to be less confident than the market.
Tsitsipas is the clear favorite, but the degree of confidence is debatable. Court Shark gives him a 71% chance against Duckworth in the Almaty Open quarterfinal: recent results support favoritism, while a modest return edge supports more caution than the market shows.
A semifinal place tests Tsitsipas's recent recovery
Stefanos Tsitsipas has the stronger case, but James Duckworth has improved his results this week. Their Almaty Open quarterfinal on Friday, October 23 offers a semifinal place on hard courts. Both arrive on a two-match winning run, so Duckworth's weaker recent record needs to be read alongside his progress through this draw.
The rankings favor Tsitsipas. He enters at No. 39, while Duckworth is No. 73, a gap consistent with the Greek being the favorite rather than an evenly matched opponent. Yet Tsitsipas's current standing also reflects how far he sits from his career high. This is a chance to extend a productive run, not evidence that his earlier level has fully returned.
Their routes here offer useful context. Tsitsipas needed a deciding set against Aleksandar Kovacevic before beating Mikhail Kukushkin comfortably, while Duckworth defeated Miomir Kecmanovic and then Luciano Darderi in straight sets. Duckworth therefore brings more than an abstract upset chance. He has already put together consecutive wins at this event after a difficult stretch elsewhere.
The market shows greater confidence in the same favorite
The market consensus moved from 72% to 77% for Tsitsipas, leaving it more confident in the favorite than Court Shark's forecast. The direction is clear. Those prices establish a change in expectations, but they cannot identify its cause, so the tennis evidence has to be assessed separately from the move.
Recent hard-court results make a strong case for Tsitsipas: his record is 8-2, against Duckworth's 4-6 over their respective latest stretches on the surface. That supports a clear favorite. Tsitsipas also beat Taylor Fritz in Shanghai before losing to Daniil Medvedev, giving his run a notable win beyond the opponents he has faced in Almaty. Those results support confidence without establishing that every part of his game is equally convincing.
The head-to-head adds less. Tsitsipas won their only meeting in Washington in 2018, but such an old encounter offers limited guidance about their present matchup. His broader hard-court winning rate is also higher than Duckworth's in the available sample. My reading is that the evidence for choosing Tsitsipas is stronger than the evidence for dismissing Duckworth's chances, especially when the return numbers offer a narrower separation.
Model and market on Stefanos Tsitsipas
Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live
Stefanos Tsitsipas's chance as the market consensus priced it from the opening line, next to the Court Shark model.
| Reading | Stefanos Tsitsipas | James Duckworth |
|---|---|---|
| Opening consensus | 72% | 28% |
| Latest consensus | 77% | 23% |
| Court Shark model | 71% | 29% |
Watch whether the return gap becomes decisive
Tsitsipas's serve is the clearest practical advantage to watch. In the hard-court sample, he held 86% of service games against Duckworth's 82%, suggesting a better foundation for protecting his own games. That matters early. If Tsitsipas holds comfortably, Duckworth will have fewer openings to turn his recent improvement into scoreboard pressure, and his own service games become more demanding.
The return comparison is closer: Tsitsipas broke in 17% of return games, against Duckworth's 15%. This is the strongest reason for restraint. My interpretation is that Duckworth's route depends on keeping his service games secure enough that Tsitsipas's superior overall results do not become a steady stream of breaks. Repeated early pressure on Duckworth's serve would weaken that case; comfortable holds would strengthen it.
Workload is another detail to monitor rather than assume away. Tsitsipas has played 6 matches in the past fortnight and Duckworth 4, although both enter without a long layoff. That difference does not establish fatigue. If the match extends, movement and the quality of service games would offer more useful evidence than the schedule alone about whether either player's recent activity is affecting him.
Explore this matchup
Compare both players side by side: recent results, surfaces, serve and return.
Player comparison
Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live
Each measure on the same scale: recent wins, wins on this surface, head-to-head wins and the model's chance.
| Measure | Stefanos Tsitsipas | James Duckworth |
|---|---|---|
| Wins, last 10 matches | 80% (8-2) | 40% (4-6) |
| Wins, last 10 on hard | 80% (8-2) | 40% (4-6) |
| Head-to-head wins | 100% (1-0) | 0% (0-1) |
| Model win probability | 71% | 29% |
Recent form
Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live
Each player's most recent completed matches, up to 10, oldest on the left.
| Player | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Sep 28, 2026 | W | Yoshihito Nishioka | 7-5 6-2 | Tokyo |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Sep 29, 2026 | W | Rinky Hijikata | 6-4 6-3 | Tokyo |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 1, 2026 | W | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 4-6 6-3 6-4 | Tokyo |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 2, 2026 | L | Valentin Vacherot | 6-4 6-7(5) 4-6 | Tokyo |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 8, 2026 | W | Kimmer Coppejans | 6-3 7-5 | Shanghai Masters |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 10, 2026 | W | Luciano Darderi | 6-3 6-4 | Shanghai Masters |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 12, 2026 | W | Taylor Fritz | 3-6 7-5 6-3 | Shanghai Masters |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 14, 2026 | L | Daniil Medvedev | 4-6 5-7 | Shanghai Masters |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 20, 2026 | W | Aleksandar Kovacevic | 7-6(9) 3-6 6-3 | ATP Almaty |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 21, 2026 | W | Mikhail Kukushkin | 6-1 6-2 | ATP Almaty |
| James Duckworth | Aug 28, 2026 | W | Fabian Marozsan | 6-7(4) 6-2 6-4 | Winston-Salem |
| James Duckworth | Aug 28, 2026 | L | Arthur Fery | 4-6 2-1 RET | Winston-Salem |
| James Duckworth | Aug 31, 2026 | W | Matteo Arnaldi | 5-7 6-3 6-2 7-6(8) | US Open |
| James Duckworth | Sep 2, 2026 | L | Yibing Wu | 5-7 3-6 1-6 | US Open |
| James Duckworth | Sep 22, 2026 | L | Kamil Majchrzak | 6-2 3-6 3-6 | Davis Cup WG1 R1: AUS vs POL |
| James Duckworth | Sep 24, 2026 | L | Lorenzo Sonego | 4-6 4-6 | Chengdu |
| James Duckworth | Oct 8, 2026 | L | Hubert Hurkacz | 3-6 6-7(4) | Shanghai Masters |
| James Duckworth | Oct 14, 2026 | L | Liam Draxl | 4-6 4-6 | Jinan Challenger |
| James Duckworth | Oct 19, 2026 | W | Miomir Kecmanovic | 6-4 6-3 | ATP Almaty |
| James Duckworth | Oct 21, 2026 | W | Luciano Darderi | 7-5 7-6(7) | ATP Almaty |
Head-to-head by surface
Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live
Stefanos Tsitsipas and James Duckworth have met once. Stefanos Tsitsipas leads 1-0.
| Surface | Stefanos Tsitsipas | James Duckworth |
|---|---|---|
| All surfaces | 1 | 0 |
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
Win rate by surface
Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live
Share of matches won on each surface across each player's last 50 matches with full statistics.
| Surface | Stefanos Tsitsipas | James Duckworth |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 61% (20-13) | 45% (14-17) |
| Clay | 64% (9-5) | 77% (10-3) |
| Grass | Too few matches (3) | 33% (2-4) |
Serve and return on hard courts
Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live
How often each player held serve and broke serve on hard over their last 50 matches with full statistics, against the tour's all-years average on the surface.
| Measure | Stefanos Tsitsipas | James Duckworth | Tour average, all years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service games held | 86% | 82% | 77% |
| Return games broken | 17% | 15% | 23% |
| Matches in sample | 33 | 31 |
Model win probability
Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live
The Court Shark model's chance for each player to win this match.
| Player | Win probability | Recent form (last 10) |
|---|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 71% | 8-2 |
| James Duckworth | 29% | 4-6 |
Ways to win
Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live
Every way the match can finish. The likeliest single result is Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets (48%).
| Result | Chance |
|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 2-0 | 48% |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 2-1 | 23% |
| James Duckworth wins 2-1 | 14% |
| James Duckworth wins 2-0 | 15% |
How long it could go
Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live
A 58% chance the match lasts 20 to 31 games; 23 is the middle of the range.
| Total games | Chance |
|---|---|
| 14 | 0.2% |
| 15 | 0.9% |
| 16 | 1.6% |
| 17 | 3.8% |
| 18 | 4.8% |
| 19 | 7.5% |
| 20 | 7.5% |
| 21 | 4.9% |
| 22 | 10.9% |
| 23 | 10.1% |
| 24 | 0.5% |
| 25 | 3.5% |
| 26 | 8.5% |
| 27 | 1.3% |
| 28 | 1.9% |
| 29 | 2.1% |
| 30 | 2.4% |
| 31 | 3.9% |
| 32 | 4.8% |
| 33 | 3.1% |
| 34 | 2.3% |
| 35 | 5.0% |
| 36 | 4.3% |
| 37 | 0.2% |
| 38 | 1.3% |
| 39 | 2.7% |
Service games held: where they stand
Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live
Each dot is one of the ATP top 100 with enough matches in the last 52 weeks. Stefanos Tsitsipas is 8th of 94; James Duckworth is 44th of 94.
| Player | Service games held | Place |
|---|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 88.0% | 8th of 94 |
| James Duckworth | 81.9% | 44th of 94 |
| Field median | 81.8% | |
| Field best (Jannik Sinner) | 94.5% | 1st |
Two years of form
Article snapshot, Oct 22, 2026 · Not live
Each player's pre-match Elo rating since Oct 23, 2024. Latest: Stefanos Tsitsipas 2030 (Oct 14, 2026), James Duckworth 1817 (Oct 19, 2026).
| Player | Start of window | Two-year peak | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 2041 (Oct 23, 2024) | 2087 (Mar 11, 2025) | 2030 (Oct 14, 2026) |
| James Duckworth | 1830 (Oct 23, 2024) | 1847 (Sep 2, 2026) | 1817 (Oct 19, 2026) |
Court Shark win probabilities are statistical estimates, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.
Methodology and sources
How we build model estimates and where our information comes from.
Model estimates and observed results
The win probabilities come from the Court Shark match model, trained on completed ATP and WTA matches. A probability says how often a player in this position wins, not that one result will happen. The model's number for a match is recorded before play and never changed afterwards, so it can be checked against the result.
Sources and citations
Results, scores, rankings and serve statistics come from the Court Shark match database. The market consensus is the pre-match price for each player converted to a probability. Figures in this article are a snapshot taken when it was written.
Limitations
Serve and return rates count only matches with full serve statistics, which are sparser for Challenger and lower-level events, and the tour average they are compared with covers every year on record. Head-to-head records count every meeting with a recorded winner, walkovers and retirements included. Charts and tables are a snapshot and do not update after publication.
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