Tsitsipas vs Basilashvili Prediction: Almaty Open 2026 Semifinal
Tsitsipas leads their head-to-head, but a retirement and Basilashvili's win in their last completed meeting limit how much that record should count.
Nikoloz Basilashvili's losing head-to-head record deserves some weight, but its age and a retirement limit its value in this Almaty Open semifinal. Court Shark's model gives Stefanos Tsitsipas a 69% chance to win.
The record favors Tsitsipas, but the latest result was incomplete
Nikoloz Basilashvili had a 1-3 record against Stefanos Tsitsipas, which points toward another defeat. Their last meeting ended in retirement, which makes that advantage less persuasive than the record alone suggests.
Saturday's Almaty Open semifinal offers a place in the final to two players who arrived at this stage with winning runs. Basilashvili had won five straight matches, while Tsitsipas had won three. The immediate question is whether their older results offer a useful distinction between players whose recent results were both strong.
All their meetings were on hard courts. That makes the surface relevant. But the latest came at the ATP Cup in January 2022, when Tsitsipas won with the score at 4-1 before Basilashvili retired. That result established a winner without establishing how a completed match would have ended, and they had not met again since.
Head-to-head by surface
Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live
Nikoloz Basilashvili and Stefanos Tsitsipas have met 4 times. Stefanos Tsitsipas leads 3-1.
| Surface | Nikoloz Basilashvili | Stefanos Tsitsipas |
|---|---|---|
| All surfaces | 1 | 3 |
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
Basilashvili won their last completed meeting
The last completed meeting supplied a different answer: Basilashvili won at Indian Wells in 2021. It took three sets. That matters because the most recent full match on this surface showed he could beat Tsitsipas, rather than merely keep the result close.
Tsitsipas had won both earlier meetings in 2019, at Beijing and the Australian Open. Neither victory came in straight sets, so the history supports a preference for Tsitsipas more clearly than it supports an easy match. Basilashvili won a set in every completed meeting.
The present rankings still separated them: Basilashvili stood at No. 128 and Tsitsipas at No. 39. Yet each had gone 8-2 over his last 10 matches, with the same record over his latest hard-court matches. My reading is that the head-to-head should reinforce a Tsitsipas lean, not establish it by itself. The completed results were competitive, and recent form offered no clear separation.
Basilashvili's return offers a route to an upset
The clearest way for Basilashvili to overturn the forecast is to make his recent return advantage matter more than Tsitsipas's stronger service record. Over the past 52 weeks on hard courts, Tsitsipas held 88% of his service games. Basilashvili held 84%, giving the favorite a stronger base for protecting his own games.
The return comparison ran the other way. Basilashvili broke in 21% of return games, compared with 18% for Tsitsipas. Those figures suggest an upset does not require Basilashvili to find an entirely new route against this opponent: converting return opportunities could offset the difference on serve.
One break could matter. Tsitsipas's lower break rate creates a concrete risk if Basilashvili protects his own serve well enough to keep sets close, rather than allowing repeated chances. The Indian Wells result is relevant here as evidence of a completed win, not proof that the same pattern will recur.
The prediction
Court Shark's model favors Tsitsipas with a 69% win probability, against 31% for Basilashvili. The market consensus matches those probabilities. Court Shark's AI analyst, which reads the matchup without the market, also picks Tsitsipas; the stronger service record and overall advantage in their meetings support that choice.
The history deserves supporting weight. Its surface relevance helps Tsitsipas's case, but the retirement and Basilashvili's victory in their last completed meeting prevent it from being decisive. The better interpretation is a favorite with a credible opponent, rather than a repeat result dictated by their earlier meetings.
Court Shark's scoreline forecast makes a straight-sets Tsitsipas win the likeliest single outcome, at 47%. Its median total is 23 games. The middle half of outcomes spans 20 to 30 games, leaving room for close sets without requiring a deciding set. Basilashvili had taken a set in every match these two finished.
How long it could go
Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live
A 52% chance the match lasts 20 to 30 games; 23 is the middle of the range.
| Total games | Chance |
|---|---|
| 14 | 0.5% |
| 15 | 1.4% |
| 16 | 2.5% |
| 17 | 5.2% |
| 18 | 6.1% |
| 19 | 8.2% |
| 20 | 8.0% |
| 21 | 5.2% |
| 22 | 9.8% |
| 23 | 8.3% |
| 24 | 0.7% |
| 25 | 3.3% |
| 26 | 6.1% |
| 27 | 2.0% |
| 28 | 2.6% |
| 29 | 2.9% |
| 30 | 3.1% |
| 31 | 4.3% |
| 32 | 4.8% |
| 33 | 3.0% |
| 34 | 2.2% |
| 35 | 4.0% |
| 36 | 3.0% |
| 37 | 0.2% |
| 38 | 0.9% |
| 39 | 1.4% |
Explore this matchup
Compare both players side by side: recent results, surfaces, serve and return.
Player comparison
Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live
Each measure on the same scale: recent wins, wins on this surface, head-to-head wins and the model's chance.
| Measure | Nikoloz Basilashvili | Stefanos Tsitsipas |
|---|---|---|
| Wins, last 10 matches | 80% (8-2) | 80% (8-2) |
| Wins, last 10 on hard | 80% (8-2) | 80% (8-2) |
| Head-to-head wins | 25% (1-3) | 75% (3-1) |
| Model win probability | 31% | 69% |
Recent form
Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live
Each player's most recent completed matches, up to 10, oldest on the left.
| Player | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Sep 27, 2026 | W | Jenson Brooksby | 6-4 7-6(4) | Chengdu |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Sep 28, 2026 | L | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 6-4 4-6 3-6 | Chengdu |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Oct 5, 2026 | W | Andre Ilagan | 6-3 6-7(1) 7-5 | Shanghai Masters |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Oct 6, 2026 | W | Liam Draxl | 5-7 7-5 6-4 | Shanghai Masters |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Oct 7, 2026 | L | Adrian Mannarino | 3-6 2-2 RET | Shanghai Masters |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Oct 17, 2026 | W | Taro Daniel | 6-2 7-5 | ATP Almaty |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Oct 18, 2026 | W | Adam Walton | 6-4 7-6(4) | ATP Almaty |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Oct 19, 2026 | W | Marin Cilic | 6-2 7-5 | ATP Almaty |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Oct 21, 2026 | W | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 6-2 6-4 | ATP Almaty |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Oct 23, 2026 | W | Adrian Mannarino | 6-3 6-1 | ATP Almaty |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Sep 29, 2026 | W | Rinky Hijikata | 6-4 6-3 | Tokyo |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 1, 2026 | W | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 4-6 6-3 6-4 | Tokyo |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 2, 2026 | L | Valentin Vacherot | 6-4 6-7(5) 4-6 | Tokyo |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 8, 2026 | W | Kimmer Coppejans | 6-3 7-5 | Shanghai Masters |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 10, 2026 | W | Luciano Darderi | 6-3 6-4 | Shanghai Masters |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 12, 2026 | W | Taylor Fritz | 3-6 7-5 6-3 | Shanghai Masters |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 14, 2026 | L | Daniil Medvedev | 4-6 5-7 | Shanghai Masters |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 20, 2026 | W | Aleksandar Kovacevic | 7-6(9) 3-6 6-3 | ATP Almaty |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 21, 2026 | W | Mikhail Kukushkin | 6-1 6-2 | ATP Almaty |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 23, 2026 | W | James Duckworth | 6-3 6-4 | ATP Almaty |
Win rate by surface
Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live
Share of matches won on each surface across each player's last 50 matches with full statistics.
| Surface | Nikoloz Basilashvili | Stefanos Tsitsipas |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 65% (15-8) | 61% (20-13) |
| Clay | 52% (12-11) | 64% (9-5) |
| Grass | Too few matches (4) | Too few matches (3) |
Serve and return on hard courts
Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live
How often each player held serve and broke serve on hard over their last 50 matches with full statistics, against the tour's all-years average on the surface.
| Measure | Nikoloz Basilashvili | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Tour average, all years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service games held | 88% | 86% | 77% |
| Return games broken | 23% | 17% | 23% |
| Matches in sample | 23 | 33 |
Model and market on Nikoloz Basilashvili
Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live
Nikoloz Basilashvili's chance as the market consensus priced it from the opening line, next to the Court Shark model.
| Reading | Nikoloz Basilashvili | Stefanos Tsitsipas |
|---|---|---|
| Opening consensus | 34% | 66% |
| Latest consensus | 31% | 69% |
| Court Shark model | 31% | 69% |
Model win probability
Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live
The Court Shark model's chance for each player to win this match.
| Player | Win probability | Recent form (last 10) |
|---|---|---|
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | 31% | 8-2 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 69% | 8-2 |
Ways to win
Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live
Every way the match can finish. The likeliest single result is Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets (47%).
| Result | Chance |
|---|---|
| Nikoloz Basilashvili wins 2-0 | 16% |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili wins 2-1 | 15% |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 2-1 | 22% |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 2-0 | 47% |
Service games held: where they stand
Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live
Each dot is one of the ATP top 100 with enough matches in the last 52 weeks. Nikoloz Basilashvili ranks ahead of 38 of 94; Stefanos Tsitsipas is 8th of 94.
| Player | Service games held | Place |
|---|---|---|
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | 80.4% | Ahead of 38 of 94 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 88.0% | 8th of 94 |
| Field median | 81.7% | |
| Field best (Jannik Sinner) | 94.4% | 1st |
Two years of form
Article snapshot, Oct 23, 2026 · Not live
Each player's pre-match Elo rating since Oct 24, 2024. Latest: Stefanos Tsitsipas 2025 (Oct 21, 2026), Nikoloz Basilashvili 1842 (Oct 21, 2026).
| Player | Start of window | Two-year peak | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1635 (Oct 30, 2024) | 1842 (May 12, 2026) | 1842 (Oct 21, 2026) |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 2049 (Oct 24, 2024) | 2087 (Mar 11, 2025) | 2025 (Oct 21, 2026) |
Court Shark win probabilities are statistical estimates, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.
Methodology and sources
How we build model estimates and where our information comes from.
Model estimates and observed results
The win probabilities come from the Court Shark match model, trained on completed ATP and WTA matches. A probability says how often a player in this position wins, not that one result will happen. The model's number for a match is recorded before play and never changed afterwards, so it can be checked against the result.
Sources and citations
Results, scores, rankings and serve statistics come from the Court Shark match database. The market consensus is the pre-match price for each player converted to a probability. Figures in this article are a snapshot taken when it was written.
Limitations
Serve and return rates count only matches with full serve statistics, which are sparser for Challenger and lower-level events, and the tour average they are compared with covers every year on record. Head-to-head records count every meeting with a recorded winner, walkovers and retirements included. Charts and tables are a snapshot and do not update after publication.
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