Tsitsipas vs Kukushkin Prediction: Almaty Open 2026 Round of 16
Tsitsipas's unbeaten record against Kukushkin supports the Almaty pick, but recent form and serving provide the more current reasons to favor him.
Stefanos Tsitsipas faces Mikhail Kukushkin in the Almaty Open round of 16 with an unbeaten record against him. That history and his stronger recent results support the favorite: Court Shark's model gives Tsitsipas a 91% chance.
An old result, a new quarterfinal opportunity
In October 2022, Stefanos Tsitsipas won his most recent meeting with Mikhail Kukushkin at Astana. That result offers a historical comparison as they return to hard courts in Kazakhstan, although it is too old to establish their current level. Much has changed since.
Wednesday's Almaty Open round of 16 offers a quarterfinal place, with Tsitsipas trying to extend his recent results and Kukushkin playing in his home country. Both won their opening matches here. For Kukushkin, this is a chance to turn that opening win into a deeper run against an opponent he has never beaten.
Tsitsipas went 8-2 in his latest matches, while Kukushkin went 4-6. Those records give the favorite a current argument alongside the historical one. Tsitsipas's recent wins included victories over Taylor Fritz in Shanghai and Rinky Hijikata in Tokyo, before his successful start in Almaty.
Five wins matter, but the meetings were not all easy
Tsitsipas led the head-to-head 5-0, including 3-0 on hard courts. His advantage was therefore not confined to clay or to a surface different from the one they will play on in Almaty. The individual results add texture.
Their first meetings in 2018 both required deciding sets, in Dubai and Rome, while the Marseille meeting in 2019 included a tiebreak. Kukushkin had therefore taken sets from Tsitsipas and pushed him beyond routine straight-set wins, even without recording a victory. The later meetings in Marseille, Monte Carlo and Astana all ended in straight-set wins for Tsitsipas.
The present rankings provide a separate reason to favor Tsitsipas, who is No. 43 against Kukushkin's No. 304. My reading is that the unbeaten record strengthens a case already supported by their current standing, rather than providing the main reason for the pick. The early deciding sets also show why an unbeaten record should not be confused with uniformly comfortable results.
Head-to-head by surface
Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live
Stefanos Tsitsipas and Mikhail Kukushkin have met 5 times. Stefanos Tsitsipas leads 5-0.
| Surface | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Mikhail Kukushkin |
|---|---|---|
| All surfaces | 5 | 0 |
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
Kukushkin's return offers a route into the match
Tsitsipas held 87% of his service games on hard courts over the past year, compared with Kukushkin's 82%. That suggests a clear task for the underdog: disrupt the stronger service record rather than wait for the old results to reverse themselves. Holding serve remains his starting point.
The return figures complicate the favorite's case. Kukushkin broke in 27% of return games over that window, while Tsitsipas broke in 17%. Kukushkin's route to a closer match is to reproduce that return pressure against Tsitsipas, forcing the favorite to defend service games more often.
Workload is another possible complication: Tsitsipas played five matches in the last 14 days and needed a deciding set against Aleksandar Kovacevic in his Almaty opener. Kukushkin had a lighter recent schedule and an extra day since his opening win. A prolonged match could make that recovery difference more relevant, particularly if Kukushkin's return record translates into repeated pressure on Tsitsipas's serve.
The prediction
Court Shark's model gives Tsitsipas a 91% win probability, while the market consensus gives him 93%. Both favor the same player strongly. The market is slightly more emphatic, but the difference does not change the direction of the pick or suggest a closely balanced contest.
Court Shark's AI analyst, which reads the matchup without the market, also picks Tsitsipas and agrees with the model. His stronger recent results and service record provide reasons beyond the unbeaten head-to-head to support that choice. Court Shark's scoreline forecast gives him a 75% chance of winning in straight sets, with a median total of 20 games.
The middle half of forecast outcomes runs from 17 to 24 games, a range rather than a prediction of an exact total. A relatively short match is the likeliest shape, with a straight-set Tsitsipas victory the most likely individual result in the forecast. Kukushkin's ability to threaten Tsitsipas's service games is the specific test of that forecast.
Ways to win
Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live
Every way the match can finish. The likeliest single result is Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets (75%).
| Result | Chance |
|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 2-0 | 75% |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 2-1 | 16% |
| Mikhail Kukushkin wins 2-1 | 5% |
| Mikhail Kukushkin wins 2-0 | 4% |
Explore this matchup
Compare both players side by side: recent results, surfaces, serve and return.
Player comparison
Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live
Each measure on the same scale: recent wins, wins on this surface, head-to-head wins and the model's chance.
| Measure | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Mikhail Kukushkin |
|---|---|---|
| Wins, last 10 matches | 80% (8-2) | 40% (4-6) |
| Wins, last 10 on hard | 70% (7-3) | 50% (5-5) |
| Head-to-head wins | 100% (5-0) | 0% (0-5) |
| Model win probability | 91% | 9% |
Recent form
Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live
Each player's most recent completed matches, up to 10, oldest on the left.
| Player | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Sep 22, 2026 | W | Alex Molcan | 2-6 6-3 6-4 | Davis Cup WG1 R1: SVK vs GRE |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Sep 28, 2026 | W | Yoshihito Nishioka | 7-5 6-2 | Tokyo |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Sep 29, 2026 | W | Rinky Hijikata | 6-4 6-3 | Tokyo |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 1, 2026 | W | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 4-6 6-3 6-4 | Tokyo |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 2, 2026 | L | Valentin Vacherot | 6-4 6-7(5) 4-6 | Tokyo |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 8, 2026 | W | Kimmer Coppejans | 6-3 7-5 | Shanghai Masters |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 10, 2026 | W | Luciano Darderi | 6-3 6-4 | Shanghai Masters |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 12, 2026 | W | Taylor Fritz | 3-6 7-5 6-3 | Shanghai Masters |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 14, 2026 | L | Daniil Medvedev | 4-6 5-7 | Shanghai Masters |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Oct 20, 2026 | W | Aleksandar Kovacevic | 7-6(9) 3-6 6-3 | ATP Almaty |
| Mikhail Kukushkin | Apr 15, 2026 | W | Jie Cui | 4-6 6-4 6-1 | Wuning 2 CH |
| Mikhail Kukushkin | Apr 16, 2026 | L | Blake Ellis | 3-6 6-7(5) | Wuning 2 CH |
| Mikhail Kukushkin | Apr 22, 2026 | W | Pavel Kotov | 1-6 6-2 6-3 | Gwangju CH |
| Mikhail Kukushkin | Apr 23, 2026 | L | Leandro Riedi | 3-6 2-6 | Gwangju CH |
| Mikhail Kukushkin | Apr 29, 2026 | L | Coleman Wong | 3-6 3-6 | Jiujiang CH |
| Mikhail Kukushkin | May 6, 2026 | W | Tianhui Zhang | 7-6(4) 6-3 | Wuxi CH |
| Mikhail Kukushkin | May 7, 2026 | L | Mark Lajal | 6-7(8) 7-6(2) 6-7(2) | Wuxi CH |
| Mikhail Kukushkin | Jun 13, 2026 | L | Mattia Bellucci | 4-6 3-6 | Halle |
| Mikhail Kukushkin | Jun 20, 2026 | L | Damir Dzumhur | 2-6 1-6 | Mallorca |
| Mikhail Kukushkin | Oct 19, 2026 | W | Stefanos Sakellaridis | 7-6(4) 7-6(3) | ATP Almaty |
Win rate by surface
Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live
Share of matches won on each surface across each player's last 50 matches with full statistics.
| Surface | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Mikhail Kukushkin |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 58% (19-14) | 60% (27-18) |
| Clay | 64% (9-5) | Too few matches (3) |
| Grass | Too few matches (3) | Too few matches (2) |
Serve and return on hard courts
Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live
How often each player held serve and broke serve on hard over their last 50 matches with full statistics, against the tour's all-years average on the surface.
| Measure | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Mikhail Kukushkin | Tour average, all years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service games held | 87% | 82% | 77% |
| Return games broken | 17% | 26% | 23% |
| Matches in sample | 33 | 45 |
Model and market on Stefanos Tsitsipas
Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live
Stefanos Tsitsipas's chance as the market consensus priced it from the opening line, next to the Court Shark model.
| Reading | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Mikhail Kukushkin |
|---|---|---|
| Opening consensus | 90% | 10% |
| Latest consensus | 93% | 7% |
| Court Shark model | 91% | 9% |
Model win probability
Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live
The Court Shark model's chance for each player to win this match.
| Player | Win probability | Recent form (last 10) |
|---|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 91% | 8-2 |
| Mikhail Kukushkin | 9% | 4-6 |
How long it could go
Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live
A 59% chance the match lasts 17 to 24 games; 20 is the middle of the range.
| Total games | Chance |
|---|---|
| 13 | 1.0% |
| 14 | 2.5% |
| 15 | 5.3% |
| 16 | 7.5% |
| 17 | 10.5% |
| 18 | 10.3% |
| 19 | 9.7% |
| 20 | 8.7% |
| 21 | 5.7% |
| 22 | 7.8% |
| 23 | 5.5% |
| 24 | 0.7% |
| 25 | 2.4% |
| 26 | 3.4% |
| 27 | 1.6% |
| 28 | 1.9% |
| 29 | 2.0% |
| 30 | 2.1% |
| 31 | 2.5% |
| 32 | 2.4% |
| 33 | 1.5% |
| 34 | 1.1% |
| 35 | 1.7% |
| 36 | 1.1% |
| 38 | 0.4% |
| 39 | 0.4% |
Two years of form
Article snapshot, Oct 21, 2026 · Not live
Each player's pre-match Elo rating since Oct 23, 2024. Latest: Stefanos Tsitsipas 2030 (Oct 14, 2026), Mikhail Kukushkin 1694 (Jun 20, 2026).
| Player | Start of window | Two-year peak | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 2041 (Oct 23, 2024) | 2087 (Mar 11, 2025) | 2030 (Oct 14, 2026) |
| Mikhail Kukushkin | 1734 (Oct 23, 2024) | 1755 (Oct 25, 2024) | 1694 (Jun 20, 2026) |
Court Shark win probabilities are statistical estimates, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.
Methodology and sources
How we build model estimates and where our information comes from.
Model estimates and observed results
The win probabilities come from the Court Shark match model, trained on completed ATP and WTA matches. A probability says how often a player in this position wins, not that one result will happen. The model's number for a match is recorded before play and never changed afterwards, so it can be checked against the result.
Sources and citations
Results, scores, rankings and serve statistics come from the Court Shark match database. The market consensus is the pre-match price for each player converted to a probability. Figures in this article are a snapshot taken when it was written.
Limitations
Serve and return rates count only matches with full serve statistics, which are sparser for Challenger and lower-level events, and the tour average they are compared with covers every year on record. Head-to-head records count every meeting with a recorded winner, walkovers and retirements included. Charts and tables are a snapshot and do not update after publication.
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