Coco Gauff's US Open Move Against Iva Jovic
Coco Gauff is favored over Iva Jovic at the US Open after the consensus moved sharply in her direction.
The move toward Gauff
39% was Iva Jovic's opening consensus. It meant the initial view gave Coco Gauff a clear edge, but left room for a competitive match between two American players in New York. The consensus then moved toward Gauff by 10 points. That is a sizeable shift. It suggests the early balance between Gauff's established standing and Jovic's immediate run through the draw did not hold.
Gauff now has 71% in the consensus, while Jovic sits at 29%. The movement is clear. It follows the most visible split in their current positions, with Gauff arriving as a proven contender and Jovic coming from much further down the rankings. Yet this is not a matchup where Jovic has appeared overmatched in recent tennis. Her recent wins have put a real test in front of Gauff, even if the consensus has become much firmer about which player should advance.
Model win probability
Article snapshot, Sep 6, 2026 · Not live
The Court Shark model's chance for each player to win this match.
| Player | Win probability | Recent form (last 10) |
|---|---|---|
| Iva Jovic | 26% | 6-4 |
| Coco Gauff | 74% | 10-0 |
Why Jovic drew early support
Jovic is ranked No. 1105, with a best ranking of No. 1060. Those figures make her current US Open run stand out sharply against the usual expectations for a player in this position. Her route has created the case for an early competitive view of this match. She has earned the chance to face one of the tournament's leading players rather than simply arriving as an unknown opponent.
Her recent hard-court record is 6-4. The surface matters here because New York is also played on hard courts, so the current run is not being built on a switch to a different setting. Jovic has won four straight matches. That momentum is tangible. She has also played recently, which removes any question about whether a long pause might interrupt her rhythm. The later consensus move says that good recent results alone were not enough to keep the matchup close in the public view.
Gauff's stronger baseline
Gauff brings a 10-0 record from her last ten matches. That is the cleanest form line available in this match, and it gives the consensus a straightforward reason to prefer her despite Jovic's current surge. The run has also come on hard courts. Conditions should be familiar. Gauff has not needed a change of surface to find the level that has carried her into this stage.
At 22, Gauff is ranked No. 6. She has operated at the top of the game before, reaching a best ranking of No. 4, while Jovic is still building her position on this scale. That experience gap can matter in a major setting, where a player must keep solving problems across a long match. Gauff's form gives her room to absorb a difficult start. Jovic's path depends on making the match uncomfortable early enough that Gauff cannot settle into the patterns behind her winning run.
The Rome meeting remains relevant
The head-to-head stands at 0-1 in Gauff's favor. Their only meeting came in Rome, where Gauff recovered after Jovic took the opening set and finished the match strongly. That result offers a useful reference without settling this rematch. Rome and New York ask different questions, but the meeting showed that Jovic can initially disrupt Gauff and make her adjust.
Jovic's best case is familiar. She needs to turn her recent confidence into early pressure, keep the exchanges competitive, and avoid giving Gauff a simple route into her return game. Gauff has already seen what Jovic can bring. That prior exposure may reduce surprise, especially after Gauff found solutions as their earlier contest developed. The market movement appears to reflect that difference between a player capable of a strong spell and a player with the stronger established match record. A close opening set would still matter greatly.
What the model says
The model gives Jovic a 26% chance and Gauff a 74% chance. Its call agrees with the direction of the consensus, which has moved toward Gauff as the match approaches. The gap is modest rather than dramatic. That leaves Jovic with a meaningful path if she can carry her current run into the biggest moments.
The market consensus has Jovic at 29% and Gauff at 71%. Court Shark is therefore slightly more favorable to Gauff than the consensus, while both views identify the same favorite. Form and ranking explain why the move has stayed with Gauff rather than reversing toward Jovic. The call would change if Jovic's recent level translated into sustained control of the match, particularly if Gauff could not recover from an early deficit as she did in Rome.
Explore this matchup
Compare both players side by side: recent results, head-to-head and the model.
Player comparison
Article snapshot, Sep 6, 2026 · Not live
Each measure on the same scale: recent wins, wins on this surface, head-to-head wins and the model's chance.
| Measure | Iva Jovic | Coco Gauff |
|---|---|---|
| Wins, last 10 matches | 60% (6-4) | 100% (10-0) |
| Wins, last 10 on hard | 60% (6-4) | 100% (10-0) |
| Head-to-head wins | 0% (0-1) | 100% (1-0) |
| Model win probability | 26% | 74% |
Head-to-head
Article snapshot, Sep 6, 2026 · Not live
Iva Jovic and Coco Gauff have met once. Coco Gauff leads 1-0.
| Surface | Iva Jovic | Coco Gauff |
|---|---|---|
| All surfaces | 0 | 1 |
Model and market on Iva Jovic
Article snapshot, Sep 6, 2026 · Not live
Iva Jovic's chance as the market consensus priced it from the opening line, next to the Court Shark model.
| Reading | Iva Jovic | Coco Gauff |
|---|---|---|
| Opening consensus | 39% | 61% |
| Latest consensus | 29% | 71% |
| Court Shark model | 26% | 74% |
Court Shark win probabilities are statistical estimates, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.
Methodology and sources
How we build model estimates and where our information comes from.
Model estimates and observed results
The win probabilities come from the Court Shark match model, trained on completed ATP and WTA matches. A probability says how often a player in this position wins, not that one result will happen. The model's number for a match is recorded before play and never changed afterwards, so it can be checked against the result.
Sources and citations
Results, scores, rankings and serve statistics come from the Court Shark match database. The market consensus is the pre-match price for each player converted to a probability. Figures in this article are a snapshot taken when it was written.
Limitations
Serve and return rates count only matches with full serve statistics, which are sparser for Challenger and lower-level events, and the tour average they are compared with covers every year on record. Head-to-head records count every meeting with a recorded winner, walkovers and retirements included. Charts and tables are a snapshot and do not update after publication.
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