Jana Kovackova has the hard-court edge
Jana Kovackova's recent hard-court record gives her the edge over Janae Preston at the US Open.
The hard-court case
7-3 is Jana Kovackova's recent record on hard courts, which gives her a clear edge in the surface history before this US Open match. Her current winning run adds to that picture. Hard courts have been the setting for most of her recent success, so this is more than a general run of good results. The surface suits her recent record.
Janae Preston arrives with a 4-2 hard-court record from her recent matches, and that is a positive base for a demanding matchup. She has found wins on the same surface. Still, Kovackova has played more winning hard-court tennis across the available sample, which creates the main separation between them. Thursday, September 10 gives Preston a chance to narrow that gap on court.
Model win probability
Article snapshot, Sep 9, 2026 · Not live
The Court Shark model's chance for each player to win this match.
| Player | Win probability | Recent form (last 10) |
|---|---|---|
| Janae Preston | 31% | 7-3 |
| Jana Kovackova | 69% | 7-3 |
A meaningful surface gap
The difference comes from current hard-court results rather than a distant result at another event. Kovackova has 7 wins in her recent surface sample, while Preston has 4. That gap matters because both players enter with equally strong overall records, leaving the hard-court results as the cleaner distinction. The conditions are familiar to both players.
Preston's 4-2 record does not describe a player out of place on hard courts. It shows she has been able to win consistently enough to make this competitive. Her challenge is to make each exchange feel immediate, rather than allowing Kovackova's larger body of surface wins to dictate the match. A sharp opening would help. Preston can use her recent match rhythm to test whether Kovackova settles quickly after time away.
No head-to-head guide
The head-to-head is 0-0, so there is no prior meeting to reveal how either player handles the other's patterns under match pressure. That removes one useful guide before the opening point. Surface history takes on greater importance because it is the strongest direct clue available from their recent records. There is no familiar rivalry here.
Both players are 16, and an unfamiliar opponent can make the early games especially revealing in a best-of-three contest. Neither has a previous match against the other to draw on for a serving pattern or a preferred return position. Early depth could matter. The player who establishes her timing first may force the other to adjust without the benefit of any previous tactical reference.
Recent form favors neither overall
Each player has won 7 of her last 10 matches, which keeps the broader form picture level before the US Open meeting. Preston comes in on a winning run. Kovackova is also carrying a winning run, so neither player arrives searching for proof that she can close matches. Overall form alone does not settle this matchup.
Kovackova's 7-3 hard-court mark gives her current form a more direct connection to the surface in New York. That is the difference. Preston has also built a positive run of results and should have confidence in her ability to stay in the match. The question is whether her smaller hard-court sample can match the player who has produced more recent wins in these conditions.
Freshness is Preston's opening
Preston has played 2 matches in the last 14 days, giving her recent competitive rhythm ahead of the event. She is listed as fresh. That recent court time may help her find her range early, particularly against an opponent returning from a break. The opening games offer her best chance to set the pace.
Kovackova has had 17 days since her last match and has played 0 matches in the last 14 days. There is some rust risk. Her winning run and stronger hard-court record remain meaningful, but time away can show up in timing, movement, or decision-making at the start. Preston's path is clearest if she turns that freshness into early pressure before Kovackova finds her match rhythm.
What the model says
The model gives Janae Preston a 31% chance and Jana Kovackova a 69% chance. No market consensus is available for comparison. The estimate favors Kovackova, matching the stronger recent hard-court record that separates the players despite their level overall form. It remains a statistical estimate.
Preston has a credible route through her positive hard-court results and her more recent match activity. An early lead could matter. The call would change if Preston's freshness produced sustained control while Kovackova showed clear rust during her return to competition. Kovackova's surface history is the main reason she begins ahead.
Explore this matchup
Compare both players side by side: recent results, head-to-head and the model.
Player comparison
Article snapshot, Sep 9, 2026 · Not live
Each measure on the same scale: recent wins, wins on this surface, head-to-head wins and the model's chance.
| Measure | Janae Preston | Jana Kovackova |
|---|---|---|
| Wins, last 10 matches | 70% (7-3) | 70% (7-3) |
| Wins, last 10 on hard | 67% (4-2) | 70% (7-3) |
| Model win probability | 31% | 69% |
Court Shark win probabilities are statistical estimates, not advice. No outcome is guaranteed.
Methodology and sources
How we build model estimates and where our information comes from.
Model estimates and observed results
The win probabilities come from the Court Shark match model, trained on completed ATP and WTA matches. A probability says how often a player in this position wins, not that one result will happen. The model's number for a match is recorded before play and never changed afterwards, so it can be checked against the result.
Sources and citations
Results, scores, rankings and serve statistics come from the Court Shark match database. The market consensus is the pre-match price for each player converted to a probability. Figures in this article are a snapshot taken when it was written.
Limitations
Serve and return rates count only matches with full serve statistics, which are sparser for Challenger and lower-level events, and the tour average they are compared with covers every year on record. Head-to-head records count every meeting with a recorded winner, walkovers and retirements included. Charts and tables are a snapshot and do not update after publication.
About the desk
Who writes the Journal and how an article is put together. Read about the desk
Editorial standards
What we publish, what we check and how we decide what is fit to print. Read our standards
Corrections
Spotted an error? Write to hello@courtshark.ai and we will correct it and note the change. Read the corrections policy